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Old 01-13-2015, 08:58 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Should I bet on Ronda?

I've never bet before but she seems like such a stable bet.
I mean, Cat has some remarkable comeback abilities but she's not superhuman...right? It's not like some movie where she is destined to win after being beaten up for a round or two.

Besides which, Ronda's a fast starter with pristine finishing ability. Cat is a slow starter with remarkable endurance. Everything points to early submission by Ronda.

So...is there a reason not to place some big cash on her besides the low payout?
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Old 01-13-2015, 09:10 PM   #2 (permalink)

 
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The big reason I'd think not to bet is the possibility of a Serra/GSP-type moment. That 'you never know' factor that makes MMA equally exciting/frustrating (depending on who you're rooting for).

Ronda should handle Zingano fine, but all the Judo/BJJ goes out the window if Cat tags Rousey good.
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Old 01-13-2015, 09:25 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Love Zingano, but you can't comeback from a broken arm
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Old 01-13-2015, 09:38 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Cat Zingano is the most athletic and skilled opponent Ronda has ever faced. If anyone pulls the upset, it'll be her. It probably isn't worth it in terms of risk vs reward.
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Old 01-13-2015, 09:58 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Cat will win, don't bet on Rousey, unless you bet against me, then bet a lot.
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Old 01-14-2015, 12:26 AM   #6 (permalink)
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The oddsmakers are in this business to make money, not hand it out. And they're good at their job. The only time to bet IMO is when you think public perception hasn't caught on to how good a given fighter has gotten, which is not the case with Ronda.

As a rule, I'd say if you have to ask, you shouldn't place the bet.
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Old 01-14-2015, 07:41 AM   #7 (permalink)
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I bet on MMA a lot and I have never bet on Rousey or Jon Jones and I very rarely bet in Demetrius Johnson or Jose Also either.

The main reason is although they are dominant champions the odds simply don't make them worth a bet.

Rousey is often -1000 or worse. Which means if you bet on her every fight and she wins 9 out of every 10 fights and loses just once you're still going to be losing money in the long run!

I'd advise using her to boost a multi. My betting site gives me a 20% odds boost on 5 fight multi bets so usually I'll get value out of 4 and add someone like rousey on as a banker.
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Old 01-14-2015, 04:31 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dragonite View Post
I've never bet before but she seems like such a stable bet.
I mean, Cat has some remarkable comeback abilities but she's not superhuman...right? It's not like some movie where she is destined to win after being beaten up for a round or two.

Besides which, Ronda's a fast starter with pristine finishing ability. Cat is a slow starter with remarkable endurance. Everything points to early submission by Ronda.

So...is there a reason not to place some big cash on her besides the low payout?
I would not bet on Ronda alone. However I do user her for Parlays. Such as if books are open for Anderson Silva vs Diaz, Ronda VS whoever, and Wiedman vs Someone who he will probably beat I would bet on all three champs to win or two of them because betting on Ronda alone will not give you enough but if you can put her to win with some other very solid people I would use her that way.

Or you could bet on her and win a lot but you would need to put like 2 to 5 thousand on ther to win like a couple hundered or whatever the odds are. If you start doing that you always always need to be aware that she may lose and you could lose your money.

Honestly MMA is such a new sport that a lot of the times the Books get it wrong. Also guys coming in from other organizations and guys on the under cards are going to be more favorable bets as the bookmakers do not always and a lot of times get those wrong. That's where I make most my money I started with 60.00 dollars and now have over 500 in my account this is over a year and a half mind you but I bet on most fights on a card to spread it out so if I get 1 or 2 wrong I have some cushion.

Betting larger amounts on a single bets is not an appropriate way to sustain a gambling habbit that is winning. Smaller multiple bets are better safer and more sustaining. DO not overbet.

I used to count cards in Black Jack at the casinos about 15 years ago back in 1999 through 2003 or so.

Anyway that would be my take on it.


Ronda is more of a sure bet for the Books then she is for you though the books love Ronda because the odds are so so in her favor that people will say oh well Ill throw 5 or 10 on her opponent and if Ronda loses I'll get paid big. The Books love someone like that.
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Old 01-14-2015, 07:49 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CupCake View Post
The big reason I'd think not to bet is the possibility of a Serra/GSP-type moment. That 'you never know' factor that makes MMA equally exciting/frustrating (depending on who you're rooting for).

Ronda should handle Zingano fine, but all the Judo/BJJ goes out the window if Cat tags Rousey good.
Cat has a better chance of being better at Judo than Ronda than a female fighter has of a Serra/GSP-type moment.
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