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Aldo winning by submission

1K views 14 replies 10 participants last post by  Danm2501 
#1 ·
Before you go frantically bashing your keyboard into oblivion take a deep breath, relax, it's just a forum thread.

There are a fair few on this forum very invested in the outcome of this fight, as can be seen by the many posts and responses to numerous topics over the last few months. I would ask that you leave your emotions at the door and discuss the statement in the thread title.

First things first; Conor McGregor is the overwhelming bookies favourite in this fight, Aldo is the underdog, you should be aware that according to the bookies the easy money is on McGregor.

Conor has looked great striking, there is no debate there but he hasn't had the opportunity to display a great deal of grappling, we do know however that his two losses (a while ago, granted) were by submission. With that information in mind it may be reasonable to assume Aldo may come with a grappling heavy game plan with an emphasis on testing Conor's Jiu-Jitsu. It is probably important to note here aswell that although Aldo is a black belt we've also not really had much opportunity to see it in action.

If Aldo is able to get to fight to the floor early, how do you see the grappling exchanges going? Do you see this as Aldo's best chance to win the fight?
 
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#2 ·
I don't read into black belts too often. If Frankie Edgar gets Aldo down, at no time do I think "Frankie man watch yourself he could submit you here". Aldo is a bit like Anderson in that he's trained jiu jitsu a lot but putting it into practice use in the cage doesn't seem like it will work out. And if it did, I'd see it maybe being an armbar or triangle from the bottom in guard. He could well win by RNC a lot, but I would see it being either from dropping Conor or capitalizing on some sort of slip.

Aldo might want to be grapple-centric but I think the first time he lands a few clean shots standing, he's going to want to keep it there. Aldo likes to fight, he enjoys breaking people down and enjoys wars as well.

Anyone who sees Conor as the "favourite" here is stupid. You might think styles make fights and Conor will win as a result, you might think Aldo won't handle an aspect of Conor's game, but you can't just say Conor is the favourite. The people Aldo has faced have proven his ability to win against a host of different styles. Conor has never faced someone close to the level of striking that Jose brings to the table, while Aldo maybe has never faced someone quite on Conor's level but he's faced elite strikers in his time and came through with flying colours.

I'd probably say Conor wins if I had to pick based on what we've seen. Conor's straight down the middle kicks are killer to take your cardio away and I think he'll be able to use them to tire out Aldo. Conor will also probably land cleanly and effectively with just about every shot since Aldo isn't exactly hard to find. The fear as a McGregor fan is the cheer explosiveness and power of Aldo's counters. The second your arm leaves the chamber, Aldo's starts to leave too. Conor will need to bully Aldo early like he has with most people; forcing him on the back foot early and then getting him on the cage as soon as possible.

If Aldo does manage to keep scoring takedowns I don't think he'll pass guard. Conor will lose some time laying on his back waiting for the ref to stand it up and eat shots exactly like he did with Mendes. Conor's guard is solid though so I'd see him being able to hold on to it. If Aldo keeps going for the grappling exchanges, I see Conor putting him in trouble as soon as they stand up. The reason for this? Dunno, but we see it a lot. When the fight finally gets stood up, no matter how good of a striker the guy on top was it always sees like he's a bit tentative to exchange straight away while the guy on the bottom is like "FINALLY lets do this".

Great great fight though.
 
#9 ·
Anyone who sees Conor as the "favourite" here is stupid. You might think styles make fights and Conor will win as a result, you might think Aldo won't handle an aspect of Conor's game, but you can't just say Conor is the favourite. .
Nonsense.

There are a lot of reasons he's favourite. He's bigger and stronger then any FW Jose has faced and hes bigger and stronger then Jose He got a huge reach advantage.
His Southpaw stance takes away Jose's biggest weapon his right leg kick, unless he wants to break it in the first round like he almost did against the zombie.
Chad was able to put Jose on his ass with a straight right, and couldn't put Conor on his ass even though he hit him cleanly a number of times, which says Conor can take a punch more then Jose can. Jose hasn't knocked out anyone in a while, Conor KO's everyone inside 2.
He got a bigger array of weapons and tricks, more kick variations, more punch variations so on the fly he has more weapons at his disposal.
Looking at the most recent press conference a month or two ago, Jose looked very very pissed. Conor is in his head and has been for a long time, another advantage.
Add to that Jose should be off the juice, and you have yourself a clear favourite. A very clear favourite, every stats points to it other then the stat that says Jose is unbeaten as champ.

Theres no doubt Aldo is a great fighter, and he still beats anyone else in the division in my eyes, but Conor is a terrible matchup for him stylistically.
 
#3 ·
That's a fair assessment there clyde. I just want to point out that Frankie is a black belt under Renzo gracie. When he gets Aldo down (soon) he might submit him.

As for Conor being a big favorite I think the bookies are relying on internet forums for their ex spurt info
 
#4 ·
No doubt Frankie could. He's a top position grappler through and through though. He could be looking to pass the guard, get to mount, take the back etc. I didn't know if Frankie was or wasn't a black belt but just by watching you can see where they are at.

The thing is, most of these strikers learn jiu jitsu for defence or for capitalizing on a mistake and taking the back. Most of them learn say a triangle choke so they can feel how to escape from it, but when on their back they haven't really tried to learn it to a degree where they are comfortable to go for it and not give up position. Conor would be an example of this too. I wouldn't think Aldo is in too much danger in Conor's guard.

Yeah bookies aren't really blameable cause most of the time they are just adjusting their bets as per the trends. If Conor was the underdog and one bookies got too much money on that, they change the odds towards Conor so less people bet on him and more bet on Jose, trying to get enough bets happening on both sides to make a profit.
 
#6 ·
I don't see an aldo submission happening for a couple reasons.

First, Aldo sees himself foremost as a striker and the best in the division. I think his ego is invested in mainly be a standup fighter as well as the best in the division. Besting Connor in this regard is important. I just don't see Aldo as the kind of guy who would concede the standup and think strategically for a takedown. I know he has gone for takedowns before it, but I don't thinkk it;s going to be a part of his plan.

Second, I don't know if Aldo is an offensive BJJ player, as has been noted in this thread, he uses it mostly for threatening and getting out for the bottom.

That being said, I think the fight will at times hit the ground and the scramble positions should be a great deal of fun with these 2 fighters.
 
#7 ·
If people don't get impressed about a black belt, what about a brown belt? People are in doubt if Aldo could be a threat on the mat, but we know Conor McGregor isn't.

Aldo will stand and bang, but he has the grappling card on his favor if unable to catch McGregor standing.
 
#8 ·
If you say Aldo is going to be high level because of his belt then how can you say Conor isn't? It's very plausible for a brown belt to submit a black belt.

It's just what they do and utilize that is important to me. Jose is certainly more of a threat but real jiu jitsu is about how you advance rather than how you submit and I don't think Jose will be as high a level to really dominate Conor with jiu jitsu.
 
#12 ·
I don't agree at all.

FIrst Conor isn't a huge favorite at all unless the Euro books have the lines inflated for Conor. On any popular offshore book or Vegas Conor is -150ish. 1.5 to 1 is not a big favorite at all in MMA. So not sure where that notion comes from??

I am well aware of Aldo's BJJ history. He is held in high regard in the BJJ community for his work early in his career. But to me it hasn't translated to MMA. He is in no way a sub guy. And in no way a smothering grappler who works for position.

Aldo probably abandoned any BJJ because he was KOing fools left and right. Also, I think he is aware that it would really empty his gas tank.

We haven't seen a ton of Conor's ground work. But I have seen enough to say he knows what he is doing and has good balance and explosion. I don't think we will be seeing Conor sub guys off his back or anything anytime soon. But he has enough to defend anything Aldo brings.
 
#13 ·
I don't doubt Aldo's BJJ because that's all you ever hear about, is his legendary BJJ, but he avoids the ground as avidly as Chuck Lidell. The only two images I have of Aldo on the ground is him putting Uriah in a crucifix in WEC and being mounted for a round by Mark Hominick.
 
#14 ·
Unless fighters are submitting guys every other fight their BJJ tends to get underrated.

I have no doubt Also has solid BJJ but I would also be surprised if Conor's ground game wasn't up to scratch.

Conor has insane flexibility which lends itself to BJJ excellently and he also trains day in day out with Gunni Nelson, you'd expect him to have picked up a thing or two over the past few years.

I doubt with all the sh*t talk leading up to this that we see any ground game anyways. They're gonna stand up and bang it out til one of them drops.
 
#15 ·
Conor has KO power, an iron chin and relentless cardio. Basically a nightmare for Jose Aldo. Cardio will be the biggest factor in this fight though. Jose's cardio stinks, and he's fighting on passion. He's going to be throwing everything in his shots and will gas inside 2 rounds. Conor's winning by TKO in the 3rd or 4th.
 
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