Brian Caraway is a huge underdog vs Sterling. I think Caraway wins this on points or Sub.
Burkman is also a decent dog vs Felder. Pretty sure Burkmans game planning is a lot better then Felders, and he can craftily grind out a decision win here.
Barao and Stephens - with Barao off the juice and Stephens coming off a loss I see Barao getting KTFO in this. Stephens is small underdog. Maybe Barao will surprise me but I think he might be done.
Garbrant is also underdog vs Almeida, but I feel like Garbrant has the better technique here and is going to KO Almeida with precision and timing
I didn't like much on this card, feel the same on Burkman though... he could win... could, but Felder is a world above when i comes to athleticism, speed and range of techniques. I always love a crafty vet though, so i have the same bet.
I feel like Barao will never be the same after TJ, and could get caught. But i'm feeling he will just jab and leg kick his way to a UD.
Garbrant-Almeida is about 50-50 to me, i think its down to who lands the first big clean shot, and Almeida is open early. But to contrast that, he has a lot more tools to get the job done.
Also got Rick Story by decision at 12/5 and Erik Koch at 5/4
Yeah those are some really good odds on Caraway, especially as Sterling hasn't faced another wrestler yet.
Chris Camozzi is also a very good pick against Vitor Miranda, that's a trap fight. Camozzi is tough to KO and Miranda is 37 and hasn't won a decision in 13 years.
I don't think the odds are good enough to go Stephens over Barao. Barao is spiraling downwards but Stephens gets finished often.
Cody is more disciplined, that fight is a nobet for me though.
Burkman over Felder makes sense.
Tarec over Story is another good upset pick, Story has had trouble with high level strikers.
I wish Larkin was a huge dog because that would be a great bet.
Miranda is that HW that dropped down a few weights right? Cammozi MOV odds are ridiuclous, so I will have a flutter there to win by various methods if Miranda gasses
Tarec vs Story odds are 10/11 and 5/6 on my site so not much in it for a bet, where are you getting your odds?
Masvidal and Larkin probably gonna be a split decision.
Burkman's odds are pretty good, although Felder looks like an accomplished stand up fighter and should have some advantages I think Burkman is good enough to win points on the move and in the clinch (if it goes there), a small bet on Burkman by decision wouldn't be a bad idea.
The Barao bet is a dangerous one, It wouldn't surprise me at all if he comes out and smokes Stephens fast but yeah all the points you've raised are valid - two knockouts and a change of weightclass, who knows, my sensible head would say stay off that one.
Tarec-Rick Story is a great fight and although I'd go with Tarec the odds of Story are too good, there's no reason why Story can't close the distance and make it a clinch/wrestling match, he wins in that scenario.
Tarec-Rick Story is a great fight and although I'd go with Tarec the odds of Story are too good, there's no reason why Story can't close the distance and make it a clinch/wrestling match, he wins in that scenario.
Yeah, Tarec better stay off the cage... Story can rattle off body shots as good as anyone, which usually sets up his clinch work nicely. This fight is some really good matchmaking.
Story is capable of bringing the goods. At one point he had a long streak and was due a title shot and lost inexplicably to charlie brenneman. He beat Gunni too, cant remember him fighting since. But if he brings the A game he can defo grind out a decision
I think John1234 said before that Tarec is a good underdog bet (paraphrasing), Tarec is the considerable favourite in this fight, I think 2/3 times he keeps this fight at distance with leg kicks and a strong jab and takes a comfortable decision. Story needs to be willing to take a punch (he is usually!) and push Tarec against the cage, he can do damage there.
Just checked, see that Story's last fight was Nelson over 1.5 years ago, I think I remember reading a while back that he has one fight left on his deal, wouldn't at all be surprised if the UFC were delaying his fight to try and tie him down. Can't find any links suggesting he signed one, Bellator next?
Thomas Almeida > Cody Garbrandt
Renan Barão < Jeremy Stephens
Tarec Saffiedine > Rick Story
Chris Camozzi < Vitor Miranda
Jorge Masvidal < Lorenz Larkin
Josh Burkman < Paul Felder
Sara McMann > Jessica Eye
Abel Trujillo > Jordan Rinaldi
Jake Collier < Alberto Uda
Erik Koch < Shane Campbell
Aljamain Sterling > Bryan Caraway
Chris De La Rocha < Adam Milstead
Saffiedine vs Story
Saffiedine moved to canada to train at Tristar with Firas Zahabi and friends sometime before his last fight with Jake Ellenberger. Saffiedine's wrestling, in fighting and grappling game have looked much tighter as a result. Only question mark for me is Saffiedine's gas tank. If Saffiedine can last 5 rounds I think his improved wrestling and grappling should be enough to keep the fight standing and allow him to out strike Rick Story to a decision. But if Saffiedine's cardio falters I think Rick Story could pull out the w.
In terms of striking, Saffiedine seems to specialize in moving backwards & countering. Rick Story seems to prefer to fight moving forward. Rick Stories style of fighting could play right into Saffiedine's game.
Miranda vs Camozzi
I think Vitor Miranda is a more technical and crafty striker than Chris Camozzi. Camozzi isn't likely to shoot for a takedown and Miranda would probably prefer to keep it standing. If its a stand up battle and the better striker wins would have to think Vitor Miranda will come out on top.
Burkman vs Felder
Burkman looked weaker and more vulnerable than I've ever seen him look in a fight, the last time he fought in the UFC. Felder is always so tough and scrappy. I'm not sure Burkman can match Felder's pace. Cardio seems to be an issue for Burkman in his last few fights Burkman could be nearing the end of his career & Felder is looking like he's in his prime.
Sterling vs Caraway
Aljamain Sterling is a stronger wrestler and better athlete than Bryan Caraway. If I remember right, Sterling trains out of Serra Longo with Chris Weidman, Stephen Thompson -- they have a lot of big names there with high level credibility. Cody Gibson might be the best wrestler Sterling has fought, on paper, anyway. Sterling has more momentum and a better talent pool of coaches, sparring partners and teammates behind him, imo. Bryan Caraway has been fighting for a very long time. He has some bad habits he's accumulated from doing certain things incorrectly over years and years the way a lot of old time fighters do. Sterling should have the advantage.
I think some of the veteran fighters like Caraway who have been fighting for a long time think that they have an advantage because they've been fighting for 10 or 15 years. But in some cases they've been some things incorrectly for 10 or 15 years. Its a disadvantage -- they've formed bad habits they revert back to when they're fighting. Whereas newer guys like Sterling have the advantage of doing things correctly from the beginning and don't have to worry about unlearning a lot of bad tendencies they've accumulated over the last 10 years.
You wouldn't pick him to win but you should take the gamble because the upside is so good.
Sterling isn't proven against wrestlers, he's only fought strikers.
I would compare this fight to if Derek Lewis was to fight Allistair Overeem, sure we would assume Overeem would win but the odds are good enough to risk on Lewis because Lewis is capable of KOing Overeem.
Unless something goes sour here.... im gonna have to thank John for one of my bets. I was picking Camozzi anyway, but his stats gave me some extra confidence needed to throw money at it.
Some people don't know the difference between predicting a fight... and just playing the odds. I think most people would've picked Sterling in the CPL, hell a bunch of bets i won tonight... i wouldn't have predicited in CPL. Sometimes the odds are wrong, to wide, thats when you place a bet.
Well don't forget Caraway was coming off a long layoff so he had some ring rust. Sterling's failure was not be economical with his energy that comes from experience, GSP lost his fight to Matt Hughes because he burned himself out. Renan Barao lost to Stephens because he also burnt himself out. Taking advantages of mistakes is what veterans do it's why you have so few undefeated top fighters because at some point fighters lose and they learn from those mistakes.
Ajamin Sterling might not manage to turn the table, Mike Easton also looked like a force of nature and then he stepped up against the other top 135 wrestlers in Assuncao and Dilllashaw and they retired him.
As for being proud of that pick...yeah I am also of Cody, Cammozzi and McMann and not to bet on the close Larkin/Masvidal and Barao/Stephens fights.
That f****** Burkman decision cost me 3g's in winnings. I was sure he got the last round after the two takedowns. Bitter. If that card hadn't been on Sunday night and starting at 1am my time I would have made a killing betting one by one. Stupid UFC and their nonsense sunday night bullshit.
Pretty good predictions though - Caraway, Stephens, Garbrandt....and the real winner of the Burkmann Felder fight. Might have to bring the podcast back for next week!
Yeah, i Had Garbrant ko 1 at 9/2 and a Story/Camozzi double on top of the other bets i won, made the Garbrant bet about 2 mins before the fight, good day for me, Story on points at 12/5 was crazy odds.
This was a nuts card though. No one had great odds and there wasn't a single result you could say you were REALLY surprised about. Top to bottom razor close.
Easy to pick all the bookies favorites and justify it - and also very little money in it. The big cheese is going against the grain when the time is right, thats where the money is! At least if your not dropping big bucks to win on the favorities
Its bizarre that anyone would think I play favorites.
Almost as bizarre as whats his face thinking Bryan Caraway was a good bet when Caraway was completey dominated and outclassed in round 1 and only won the fight because his opponent made a mistake of over committing too much energy to a sub.
Well I see your point about betting favourites. But I have a few reasons that I don't do it.
Firstly its not nearly as much fun. Also I don't get a buzz of winning 20 quid off betting 50 or 100. Its more like relief. And then in some ways its just as risky having to do that 4 times then bet smaller on 4 underdogs.
Mostly I like the challenge of using my knowledge to pick fights the bookies have dropped the ball on. Its one of the few sports thats doable in I think. And this forum actually unlike pretty much anywhere else ive seen for MMA has people who really know their shit so there is great insight to be had to pull off these winning bets. Some of the other places are just full of retards.
We should actually have a good betting thread like this before every event. If I get a chance ill do a podcast tomorrow and make that the betting thread. Last night I had Caraway (points), Garbrant (KO), Stephens, McMann (points), Cammozi, and Burkmann in an accumulator. Probably wouldn't have bet on Cammozi in there if not for this thread. Just over 3g's to be won on that bet through good refined thinking. (if Burkman had got the decision).
I just realised I had a 50-1 Burkman on points and Caraway on points double I put 20 quid on too lol. Son of a bitch.
I've found underdog bets on MMA to be a real money spinner. Sure it doesn't always work out but like others have said the odds are just crazy out on some fights.
Like the Cruz/Faber fight coming up. Do I think Faber wins? Not really. But they have fought twice before and are 1-1, Cruz has had two fights in the last 5 years and although he looked good last time out he still just won a split decision.
But on my bookies Faber is out at $6.50 (11/2, +550) to win! To me that is crazy. So the bookies think he wins this fight less than 1/6 times. To me it's a no brainer to back him even if I don't have confidence.
PaddyPower does... at least when you get to about 3 days out. Offer method, round, distance, alternate method, alternate rounds... all kind of stuff, for all the fights.
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