He has some of the attributes that Matt Hughes had when he started, but he doesn't remind me of Matt Hughes. Matt always seemed a lot more natural in the cage than Tommy does. You can tell that some guys are fighters, and Tommy just doesn't seem like one of those guys.
Plus, when he actually moves into the UFC, he'll be facing guys who are much closer to his size and strength than the guys on TUF (aside from Billy Miles, but he's pretty useless in himself). I think that's going to shock him, and lead to some early struggles when he realizes that he can't just power out of everything.