I think Tito is still a broken mess, and although is fit enough to fight, he just can't move like he used to.
Shogun has been dynamic and athletic in the past with his movement both on the ground and on the feet. I think if he can use this to his advantage, he will make Tito look slow in comparison. The scrambles are where this will show through, and is Shogun's best chance at winning.
He isn't good enough to KO him standing, and without his patented stomps and soccer kicks he can't finish the way he likes, which is to hurt a guy, and just kick the crap out of them while they're down. He needs to sweep Tito in a scramble and sub him from top position, and although that's his best chance, Tito hasn't been subbed for over 10 years...so it wont be easy.
Demian Maia may be the Fred Astaire of jiu-jitsu, but it’s too bad Silva is the Gene Kelly of kicking everyone’s ass.