Mir is huge underdog in that fight, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being the first person ever to finish Nog either. Nog isn't getting any younger.
Nog has better subs and stand up though, so Mir most likely gets KOed or subbed. Saying he has zero chance, even to win by UD is stupid. Remember this isn't Pride and Nog spending couple rounds on his back trying to sub Mir while taking some weak'ish G&P wont result with Nog winning. In UFC Mir could win by UD just by staying on top doing some weak G&P, although I don't see how he can do that vs. Nog for 5 rounds without getting sweeped or subbed.
Sooo... Zero chance, no. Low chance, yes :P