I think Nate is extremely underrated, I mean most people dont even know who he is, but as the UFC website says, he is a world class striker, well conditioned, has great size and he is a BJJ black belt. For people who dont know his credentials:
Blackbelt Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
2nd deg blackbelt Pancrase MMA/Jiu-Jitsu.
7 times King of Pancrase
1st middleweight King of Pancrase
Pancrase 2002 Spirit Tour Champion,
Pancrase Trans Tournament Champion
Bas Rutten Invitational Middleweight Tournament Champion
Ring of Fire Middleweight Champion
I.M.A. Rumble in the Rockies Tournament Champion
Thats pretty serious. I just think he hasnt fought any really tough opponents that are very well known. Personally, I think he could really give anyone in the MW division a VERY difficult fight, even Silva.
Either way, Dean Lister is one of my favorite fighters but I think since Nate has him in the stand up and the fact that he is a BJJ BB, he will win this one.