Let me say I'm an Arlovski fan. In saying that I don't see him being able to be able to beat Fedor, but "anyone with two fists and a heartbeat got a shot". If he does win I doubt he would immediately run back to the UFC. However I don't know how long Affliction will keep doing PPVs. They lost money on the last one, and I doubt they want to be in the business of losing money.
Your momma was right (it hurt a little to say that). If Fedor loses Dana White would spin it into a hype machine that could very well kill future PPV's for Affliction.