This is a clear and easy UD/TKO for Machida. His style plays right into Machida's hands. He will be too aggressive and either lose by TKO, or Machida will do what he does, avoid and technically dissect Thiago in every aspect of MMA to get an easy UD.
Machida has a much better roster of wins:
I understand that some of these wins were earlier in his career and Penn was out of his weight, but how do you deny the quality of these men that he holds a win over? Compare it to Thiago's resume and it is a laughable matchup. In fact, in my opinion, the only reason why the people saying Thiago will win is all based on the fact that they find Machida boring and want him to lose. I doubt anyone actually thinks Thiago is going to pull out the win.
Machida is a better fighter and will win, period.