The only times I've ever seen Nog look vulnerable were against Sylvia (he came back and won), against Mirko (he came back and won), and against Fedor (Fedor was unable to finish him). Let's analyze these situations. Tim and Mirko both out-struck Nog and were able to brutalize him in the stand-up. But with some phenomenal heart, determination, and jui-jitsu skills, Nog was able to persevere and come back with an impressive win. With Fedor, Nog was simply out-classed. It was absolutely heartbreaking to watch Nog be basically dominated the whole fight.
But then we have a guy like Frank Mir. What does he have to offer that can beat Nog? He has some great jui-jitsu, but when has Nog ever looked vulnerable in jui-jitsu? Against Ricco in ADCC back in 2000 (I think)? That wasn't even in MMA. Nog might not have the best pure jitz, but he has quite possibly the best MMA translated jitz. And then we have the stand-up. If you've watched Mir's fights, I think you'd agree with me if I said his stand-up is sub-par at best. Nog at least has some polished boxing. Nog would most likely out-strike him. Then what about conditioning? Mir has gassed before and the only times I ever say "Hey, Frank Mir looked really impressive" are when he scores a quick finish win. Nog has gone the distance with the best in the world and come out on top many times. What factors are left that people can make outrageous claims of Mir winning this fight?
Now, don't get me wrong. I always enjoy a good underdog win. Like with Serra over GSP. I was on the ground laughing. But with GSP, I feel he was still premature. His most impressive fight was his destruction of Matt Hughes at UFC 65. He was nowhere near the monster then that he is now. So it was at least understandable that Serra stood a chance. I believed in Serra and I laughed at it afterward. But with Nog, we all know what he's capable of. With Mir, we all know how his fights usually end up. But sure, anything can happen. But let's get real here. How does anyone expect Mir to win? I'm not saying it's impossible, but I'm just curious as to how Mir is expected to win by some. It's baffling to me.