Be that as it may, but from what Valverde said I gather Noguaira at least manages to submit him in practice, which at least tells me his jitz is still in some sort of shape.
Not really. If Vinny is 30 pounds heavier than Valv, it means Nog is like 60-70 pounds heavier than Valv. All it says is that Valv can't outroll a black belt that is 30 pounds (Vinny) or 60-70 pounds (Nog) heavier than him, not really shocking news to me atleast.
I don't think Nog's pure no-gi bjj
is better than Vinny's (Vinny has beaten both Drysdale and Ribeiro on no-gi tournaments), but he has arguably the best mma bjj of any division (Maia is pretty close I would say). Its not flashy or fancy at all like Vinny's or Maia's, or explosive like Mir's, but it gets things done just as well if not even better.
Also defensively its extremely impressive like Serra's, but Nog has bigger size (compared to rest of the guys in his division, Serra is kinda short) and his sweeps are so damn effective.
Even though Nog has better stand up (technically) he isn't exactly known for his KO/TKO wins. I think he has maybe 4-5 or so of those total and 20~ submission wins. He'll control the stand up and will win by decision eventually if it goes that far, but the fight will go to ground at some point and we will see some badass bjj then. Because of awesome odds and the fact that Mir has been working on his weaknesses (stand up and cardio)Im betting on Mir to sub Nog, but yeah Nog is the clear favourite on this.