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Old 12-26-2008, 09:18 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Aaronyman's UFC 92 Lockdown

[applause comes to a close]

Okay so as most of you know I'm coming off of that trainwreck of a night at the UFC Fight for the Troops...lets hope this one goes better...it's an interesting card for me, because none of my favourite fighters are participating...hopefully that will limit any bias that I normally don't have anyway

here are the odds from BODOG

http://www.mmaunderdogs.com/bodog/

Quinton Jackson +105

IMO this is the best bet of the evening. The question you should be asking yourself when analyzing this fight is? Will Rampage get Wanderlei down at will? if yes, how will the fight play out with Rampage on top of Wanderlei?

Can Wanderlei get up? Can he submit Rampage? I would really doubt it...and it's going to be a painful reminder to Wanderlei fans when he loses a UD to Rampage.

Sorry folks, but Wanderlei is an eroded pebble in the stream. His striking is dangerous but not great, his wrestling is below average, and his bjj (even tho it's there on paper) doesn't really help him in fights...his athletic ability isn't what it used to be and he seems incapable of implementing any kind of gameplan to avoid being taken down...I mean, if when a past his prime Chuck Liddell can take you down without any trouble, that's really not good when fighting a guy like Rampage.

Don't get me wrong, I love Wanderlei and if I wasn't betting against him I would be rooting for him in this fight, but his time has come.

Pat Barry -240


I was pretty surprised when I saw this betting line at how generous it was being towards Evenson...the guy is trash...complete trash and he's fighting a very good, very aggressive striker in Pat Barry...Evenson is a "Norwegian kickboxing champion" lol...sometimes i wonder if they just raffle those trophies off to people...Any fighter with a reasonable level of lateral movement will walk right past a guy Evenson's droggy strikes and punish him....and even tho Pat Barry is a lil undersized for the division, I don't see that being a problem in this fight with two HW strikers...one who is very good standing, the other is ...well pretty bad despite that being his only real weapons....the fact that Evenson is even in the UFC makes me wonder if they bring guys in just to make highlight reels out of...he's a pretty embarrassing professional athlete IMO

Pat Barry via whatever he wants standing

more analysis is coming
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Old 12-26-2008, 11:19 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Agree with your Berry pick but IMO no one should ever bet on a Wanderlei fight he has a take a punch land a punch style that really makes almost any fight a coin flip.

Now Rampage could take him down and control him. However they are going to have to stand at some points in the fights and I'm sure him and Wandy will throw heavy hands at each other.

I'm almost positive this will be a KO in round 2 I'm just not sure for who yet.
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Old 12-26-2008, 11:23 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Dude! Have some respect, he's a Norwegian, not a retarded swede! ;-p.

I happen to be Norwegian myself, Dana should get his hands on Joachim Hansen asap!


Btw, Evensen was to compete in hammer - throwing in the Olympics a couple years ago, and he's a national junior master in judo - so he has some ground skills.
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Old 12-26-2008, 11:58 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by bbjd7 View Post
Agree with your Berry pick but IMO no one should ever bet on a Wanderlei fight he has a take a punch land a punch style that really makes almost any fight a coin flip.

Now Rampage could take him down and control him. However they are going to have to stand at some points in the fights and I'm sure him and Wandy will throw heavy hands at each other.

I'm almost positive this will be a KO in round 2 I'm just not sure for who yet.
I think Rampage and his camp know that taking Wanderlei down is the path to least resistance...I mean, we all know it...even tho I think Rampage could beat Wanderlei standing at this point as well, it's a much smarter decision to take him to the mat....also, keep in mind this fight is in Las Vegas, so we're going to be getting our normal referee's....Mario, Steve, Herb...these guys do not stand up fights often...only if it's alot of inactivity...and I don't forsee Rampage taking it easy on Wanderlei when it hits the ground...I see him throwing down

Quote:
Btw, Evensen was to compete in hammer - throwing in the Olympics a couple years ago, and he's a national junior master in judo - so he has some ground skills.
that's interesting....the only critique I'd say is that in a country with less than 5 million people, the whole "olympic athlete" does hold as much weight...not to mention, hammer has alot to do w/ raw power and less to do with applicable fighting abilities

thanks for the point about his judo..i did not know that...i thought Rogan said he was a blue belt in bjj which isn't much at this level of the game....i'd think that if he wanted to showcase that, he would have done so against Kongo, who isn't a particularly proficient ground fighter...

I have a feeling this fight will be shown at some point in the ppv....and it will be really fun
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Old 12-26-2008, 12:38 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Thanks for that. Doesn't -240 for Barry means he's kinda the big favorite in that fight?

I don't agree for Page cause I think he's going to lose and I think a bet on Rashad would be good too.
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Old 12-26-2008, 01:05 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Xerxes View Post
Thanks for that. Doesn't -240 for Barry means he's kinda the big favorite in that fight?

I don't agree for Page cause I think he's going to lose and I think a bet on Rashad would be good too.
i'm going to add my analysis on rashad vs. forrest later haha....to lazy to do it all at once..i also have a christmas party to go to...
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Old 12-26-2008, 01:54 PM   #7 (permalink)
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that's interesting....the only critique I'd say is that in a country with less than 5 million people, the whole "olympic athlete" does hold as much weight...
Sure it does. Its not like every country can just send their best athletes to olympics, because in every olympic sport there is requirements the athletes have to fill to qualify. It means there is less top 10 athletes than from USA, China, Russia etc. and less athletes overall in teams, but those who qualify to even participate sure deserve to be there.

On Football though you end up with alot of crappy countries from Asia and Africa joining because of the dumb rules of specific # of slots per continent. Alot of European and couple of south american countries that are overall much better wont get in because some crappy #90 or something FIFA ranked country gets in instead because Asia has only 1 or 2 countries that even know how to play. *sigh*

Anyway, getting bit off topic.... Barry fight I agree with. Im shocked if Evensen wins that fight. It wont be even close...
However Im equally shocked if the holy rock-paper-scissors -triangle bitween Chuck, Wandy andRampage gets broken. I enjoy watching both of them fight, but Page got totally destroyed on both previous times and has had alot of mental issues recently. It'll be bit more even than last time, but his clinch game still isn't good enough to roll with Wandy and he wont be finishing Wandy on ground either.
He is in no condition to fight someone like Wanderlei now, and he'll get punished not only for accepting the fight this soon but also for his idiotic hit and run -crime.
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Old 12-26-2008, 02:48 PM   #8 (permalink)

 
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Aaronyman, for once I gotta call you out on your picks, I mean how can you call a guy who just switched camps following a mental breakdown a lockdown? Hell even if you thought when Rampage was champ he could beat Wandy there has to be some question now.
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Old 12-26-2008, 02:53 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Aaronyman View Post
I think Rampage and his camp know that taking Wanderlei down is the path to least resistance...I mean, we all know it...even tho I think Rampage could beat Wanderlei standing at this point as well, it's a much smarter decision to take him to the mat....also, keep in mind this fight is in Las Vegas, so we're going to be getting our normal referee's....Mario, Steve, Herb...these guys do not stand up fights often...only if it's alot of inactivity...and I don't forsee Rampage taking it easy on Wanderlei when it hits the ground...I see him throwing down



that's interesting....the only critique I'd say is that in a country with less than 5 million people, the whole "olympic athlete" does hold as much weight...not to mention, hammer has alot to do w/ raw power and less to do with applicable fighting abilities

thanks for the point about his judo..i did not know that...i thought Rogan said he was a blue belt in bjj which isn't much at this level of the game....i'd think that if he wanted to showcase that, he would have done so against Kongo, who isn't a particularly proficient ground fighter...

I have a feeling this fight will be shown at some point in the ppv....and it will be really fun
Actually he has a purple belt, hehe. I agree with you guys though, Pat Barry is most likely taking it, unless something crazy happens. Dan Evensen did look quite out of his element in his debut, though it may have been the nerves playing a huge part considering it was his first "big" fight.
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Old 12-26-2008, 03:56 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Aaronyman, for once I gotta call you out on your picks, I mean how can you call a guy who just switched camps following a mental breakdown a lockdown? Hell even if you thought when Rampage was champ he could beat Wandy there has to be some question now.
Its obviously not a lockdown lol.

But, if you think rampage is at least 50/50 to take this fight, its a profitable bet in the long run... and thats all that matters.. even if its only +0.05 equity. I got my money in on rampage at +110, and I feel he is going to take it this time, so I am very happy win or lose.

Regarding the Pat Barry pick.. you can get Pat at -215 on sportsbook.com

P.S. What bets did you make so far Aaron? Doing any parlays or just straight bets?

I bet on Rashad @ +115 (I think it was +115.. too lazy to check)
Rampage @ +110
and CB @ -145
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