I don't see a 1st round KO by big Timmy. Remember, his punchs will be coming from a downward angle, which will make is easy for Jeff to dodge, as they will be tellegraphic. Once Jeff gets in the clinch, Tim will have a hard time reaching down for underhooks.
Monson has no neck, which makes it harder to knock him out. When and if he gets Tim to the ground, I don't see Tim getting back up that easy. Also, Jeff has fought big boys before, so he'll know what to do when the time is right.
I've got my money on jiu jitsu. Tim will get tapped out deep into the fight, probably in the end of the 4th round.
I also predict GSP will take Hughes out. It is time to see Matt without a belt.