I like Matt Sera a lot but I really don't think he has a chance. If you look at the way he shoots he is wide open and in his past fights had a hard time shooting several times and getting stuffed. That is a lesser fighter than GSP. With GSP I really don't see how he can win unless he uses a different take down method.
I think Lutter has more of a chance because he gets them up against the fence, then goes for the take down.