I think you're probably right. Randy's new confidence in his stand up, seems to have made him forget what it is he's really good at (clinching against the cage, dirty boxing and wearing his opponent out). He didn't play to his strengths enough against Nog. IMO he needed to put him against the cage and keep him there for as long and as often as possible, but instead he tried to box with him. If he took the same approach with Fedor, he wouldn't make it out of the first round.
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