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Belfort/Franklin breakdown (MMAweekly article)

783 views 8 replies 8 participants last post by  vandalian 
#1 ·
Many fans seemed lukewarm to the idea of the original main event for UFC 103 pitting Rich Franklin against Dan Henderson. The promotional giant listened as they soon jettisoned that idea and instead brought in former UFC light heavyweight champion Vitor Belfort, fresh off of two wins at middleweight, to serve as the competition to Franklin as the promotion landed in Dallas.

Belfort made the decision to drop to 185 pounds and then went on to two devastating knockout wins, the most notable of which flattened former top five middleweight Matt Lindland, in his last fight. Outside of two losses to highly regarded pound-for-pound king Anderson Silva, Franklin has been the picture of consistency in the UFC, dropping only one other fight, a split decision to Henderson earlier this year.

While this fight will be at a catch weight of 195 pounds, both Franklin and Belfort could easily compete at 205 pounds or 185 pounds, but this match-up could determine the immediate futures for the fighters. A win puts them in the upper echelons of their chosen divisions, while a loss is a major step back towards any title campaign.


STRIKING

Unless something drastic happens in this match-up, the bout between Franklin and Belfort will likely be decided on the feet. Both fighters prefer to stand and trade with their opponents, and while one has a pension for knockouts, the other has established himself as one of the smartest strikers in the sport.

Vitor Belfort has always been known for his incredible hand speed and phenomenal power. From his lightning quick knockout of Wanderlei Silva in 1998 to his most recent KO of Matt Lindland, Belfort has devastating power in both hands and when he unloads it's like a Mack truck coming full speed ahead.

For him to succeed in this fight, Belfort simply needs to use his hands and be aggressive, while watching for Franklin's counter punches. The Brazilian always shows flashes of brilliance when he mixes up his combinations and throws something new in, like the flying knee he landed on Marvin Eastman a few years ago.

On the other side of this equation is Rich Franklin, who has finished a number of opponents with his hands, but uses a much more controlled style and counter punches with brilliance. The former middleweight champion does a great job of eluding damage while frustrating opponents with punches from the outside, and throwing in a bevy of head and body kicks as well.

Fighting an aggressive fighter is nothing new to Franklin, just coming off of a win over Pride legend Wanderlei Silva, but he probably hasn't faced as fast of a fighter since battling Anderson Silva. The Cincinnati native needs to keep his guard up at all times and counter punch, counter punch, counter punch. Walking forward too much could spell the end to his night, as Belfort loves to land the quick punch and finish with a flurry.

Both fighters have their own styles when it comes to the striking game, and this fight will all come down to which one can make the other play to their strengths, while not exposing any of their weaknesses.


GRAPPLING

In an MMA fight nothing can be ignored and Franklin and Belfort both have a wealth of experience on the ground as well. Franklin has been working with Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace Jorge Gurgel since the beginning of his career, while Belfort holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from Carlson Gracie.

While both are proficient in the grappling game, it's not either fighter's first choice on how to win a fight. Franklin has won fights with submissions in the past, but his last was an armbar victory over Jorge Rivera in 2004, while you have to go back to 2001 to catch Belfort's last submission win, a rear naked choke over Bobby Southworth in Pride.

When on the ground, Franklin has shown a strong attack when it comes to his punches, and he's able to get up from the bottom very well when playing the guard game. He has been known to put himself in bad positions just to allow his opponent to make a mistake, but has come dangerously close to being submitted such as fights with Yushin Okami and Travis Lutter.

Belfort is an experienced grappler in his own right, but again doesn't usually look for the ground game unless he's been taken down. He's been caught on the bad end of a guillotine choke only once, and outside of that Belfort has shown good submission defense. If there's one glaring weakness to Belfort's game when it comes to the ground it's his inability to avoid it. He's faced a who's who list of top wrestlers in the past and still struggles to avoid takedowns, but fighting a striker like Rich Franklin it's not likely he'll be defending too many double legs in this fight.

Franklin could throw a big monkey wrench into the fight plans of Vitor Belfort if he does work the clinch and drag the Brazilian to the ground, causing him frustration trying to work from the bottom. It's not likely, but Franklin could edge Belfort in this fight if he's willing to show all sides of his game, using his wrestling and ground game to his advantage.


CAGE CONTROL

Aggressiveness is a key asset for Vitor Belfort in this fight so it only goes to that stance that if he controls that part of the game, then he may very well edge Franklin on cage control. Franklin likes to counter punch, which in many cases causes him to land a shot or a combination and then back out again. While the style is effective to cause damage and eventually get the win, he's not over powering his opponents and pushing them around the Octagon.

Franklin does have a great clinch game and if he presses Belfort against the cage early on and makes him start thinking about the takedown, this category could swing in his favor.


CONDITIONING

Having prepared for so many five round fights in his career, Franklin seems to have the clear edge in this category. Beyond just his title fights, Franklin has never seemed out of shape or out of gas heading into the final round of any fight. He conditions himself like a fined tuned machine, and he shows it by battling through every second of every round he competes in.

Belfort has definitely shown signs of exhaustion in past fights, whether mentally or physically, he has looked broken before as a final round starts. The Brazilian has prepared for several title matches as well, and his frustration from losing the earlier part of a fight may have played just as big of a factor as anything physically, but he has shown less than optimal energy as the rounds go forward.

The cut to 185 pounds seems to have re-energized Belfort though, so hopefully he won't lose much of that going back up to 195 pounds for this fight.


THE "X" FACTOR

Inconsistency. That is the key word that will be brought up over and over and over again when talking about Vitor Belfort, and he has to battle through that perception in this headline fight against Rich Franklin. At times, Belfort has looked like one of the top pound-for-pound fighters on the planet, and at others he seems like he's rather be at home watching TV than in the cage fighting.

Entering the UFC at such a young age and then having such a successful career may have been the key to the problems Belfort faced after a devastating loss to Randy Couture in 1997. While he did bounce back strong with a KO over Wanderlei Silva, it was that performance that seemed to haunt Belfort later in his career as other fighters felt like they had figured out the secret to defeat the "Phenom" after he looked so unbeatable in his first few fights.

Belfort is very much like Yankees' third baseman, Alex Rodriguez, in the sense that he can blast homerun after homerun in the regular season, but crumbles when the playoffs come around. The Brazilian has looked brilliant lately, but back under the bright lights of the UFC main event could put just the right pressure on Belfort to crumble once again.

Franklin on the other hand has been the picture of consistency outside of his two fights against Anderson Silva. He always shows up ready and 100-percent confident that he will win that night. His mental toughness and readiness could be the biggest factor as he heads into Saturday night's main event.

KEYS TO VICTORY:

RICH FRANKLIN
- Avoid Belfort's big punch
- Counter strike and move
- Mix in a takedown to throw his opponent off

VITOR BELFORT
- Quick hands and cage control
- Aggressiveness
- Mental strength and confidence
Source: MMAweekly.com


Good breakdown, wish they would do more of those. I'm rooting for Vitor but think Rich takes the UD.
 
#3 ·
Ok my prediction Belfort by TKO in the second Rich has trouble with pure strikers A silva hurt him with punches even Evan Tanner dropped him. Belfort is incredibly fast and accurate has big time KO power if he gets Rich up against the cage Vitor will unload cardio is an issue but he's been training with Randy for awhile it could be a new Vitor we will see.
 
#4 ·
This fight with definitly be decided on the feet. These are two of the best strikers in the game today. There is going to be a constant flow of punches coming from both men and it will definitly make for fight of the night..

The sad thing is that its only three rounds long :(
 
#5 ·
Vitor is an immense talent who, for a variety of reasons, has never lived up to his full potential. Right now, he reminds me a lot of Rampage in Pride: a bull with great power, without proper training or guidance.

Although Vitor has aligned himself with Randy Couture, Vitor could benefit a lot from a very strong team with a great strategist.

Conclusion:

Vitor + Greg Jackson = Middleweight Championship.
 
#8 ·
V Nice break down there i think Franklin will struggle with Belforts speed and power he's gonna get that same look in his eyes that he had when silva had him in the clinch. ;)
Damn i'm pumped for this fight WAR VITOR!!~
 
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