I'm a Shogun fan, so clearly want him to win, but I actually played out the UFC 104 event on WMMA2 last night, and the Shogun-Machida fight was epic. If the actual fight is anything like the one on my WMMA game then I'll be delighted.
Basically, Machida dominated the stand-up, stopped any of Shogun's takedown attempts for the entirity of the first 4 rounds. Rua barely got a punch of any note in for the whole 4 rounds. Then, at the start of the 5th, Machida changed his gameplan, and went for a takedown, probably in order to get Shogun to the ground, and hold him there to take out the round and the fight.
Shogun managed to counter it though, and lock in his Muay Thai clinch, and just under 2 minutes into the 5th and final round Shogun connected with a massive knee knocking Machida out cold.

Now that'd be an ending to the fight I'd love to see. Get to see Machida's elusiveness and striking ability for the first 4 rounds and then a Shogun big knee knockout to win him the fight.
The fight won't go like that though. Machida will pick Shogun apart, but he'll finish him in the 2nd, either by straight knockout or TKO. Would be nice to see my WMMA2 fight come true though =D