My book's UFC 104 odds
(click there) have Machida at -450 last I checked...at least a bit better value than some of the books.
I understand the fear bout picking him because of the LHW belt changing hands so many times but I think Machida is different.
Some people may say "But Evans was undefeated and look what happened to him."
But to those people I say...
1) Whom had Evans beaten? Washed up Liddell, flawed Forrest Griffin and Bisping in a questionable decision
2) Had Evans ever lost a round in the UFC? Of course.
Machida, meanwhile, has beaten Evans/T. Silva/Tito/Rich Franklin/even fat B.J. Penn, haha. He's also never lost a round in the UFC.
I think an aggressive fighter like Shogun will fall right into Machida's trap -- overextend himself and get caught with a counter strike.
I don't just think Machida will win; I think he'll become the first guy to knock out Shogun.
(I don't count Shogun's TKO loss to Mark Coleman -- that was a broken arm)