Why I am NOT putting $ on Machida:
I took a look at the odds this morning, and right now, it's as follows:
- 500 Machida, +300 Rua.
PRIDE fanboys have calmed down, and are more realistic about their favorite fighters inside the octagon.
And newer MMA fans have ADD, and unless you have a one syllable name to chant ["BROCK BROCK BROCK"], they won't be throwing any money down on the fight.
This leaves the more educated fan, who understands that, in all reality, Machida has a great chance to win.
This means that the line is going to stay stagnant. It isn't going to move much, if at all.
My hesitancy isn't based on Machida's ability to win, but instead, on his ability to RETAIN. It's often said that you're not a champion until you retain the belt, and I believe that is truth.
A recent viewing of the LHW belt shows how much in turmoil that gold strap is.
Rampage to Griffin to Rashad to Machida, all with no retentions of the belt. [Note: Rampage took the belt from Chuck, but the following fight v. Hendo was a title unification bout... I'm not going to count that as a retention, but more of a "legitimacy" fight.]
The HW division has been much of the same, if you use my explanation above re: title unification, w/ Couture having the only defense of the belt. Before that, you have to go to TIMMY.
Machida has the potential to be great. But, that title often goes to whomever is hungrier, which is often the challenger.
Many people have gotten the title, few retain it, and even fewer retain it for an extended period of time.
I hope Machida takes it, but I'll be sitting on the sidelines until he proves to me I'm right. After this, I may be willing to risk the -500... but not right now.