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Old 10-19-2009, 01:47 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Why I am NOT putting $ on Machida:

I took a look at the odds this morning, and right now, it's as follows:

- 500 Machida, +300 Rua.

PRIDE fanboys have calmed down, and are more realistic about their favorite fighters inside the octagon.

And newer MMA fans have ADD, and unless you have a one syllable name to chant ["BROCK BROCK BROCK"], they won't be throwing any money down on the fight.

This leaves the more educated fan, who understands that, in all reality, Machida has a great chance to win.

This means that the line is going to stay stagnant. It isn't going to move much, if at all.

My hesitancy isn't based on Machida's ability to win, but instead, on his ability to RETAIN. It's often said that you're not a champion until you retain the belt, and I believe that is truth.

A recent viewing of the LHW belt shows how much in turmoil that gold strap is.

Rampage to Griffin to Rashad to Machida, all with no retentions of the belt. [Note: Rampage took the belt from Chuck, but the following fight v. Hendo was a title unification bout... I'm not going to count that as a retention, but more of a "legitimacy" fight.]

The HW division has been much of the same, if you use my explanation above re: title unification, w/ Couture having the only defense of the belt. Before that, you have to go to TIMMY.

Machida has the potential to be great. But, that title often goes to whomever is hungrier, which is often the challenger.

Many people have gotten the title, few retain it, and even fewer retain it for an extended period of time.

I hope Machida takes it, but I'll be sitting on the sidelines until he proves to me I'm right. After this, I may be willing to risk the -500... but not right now.
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Old 10-19-2009, 02:02 PM   #2 (permalink)
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I think your totally corect, however Lyoto isnt one to underestimate nor lose focus in this situation, his life dream has been to become the champ.....

I believe he will be focused and certainly disciplined enough to enact the same things that have worked for him up till this point, he just now has an opponent that will "give" him more of what Lyoto wants....an attacking fighter that is easy to counter.....

EDIT: For the record vBookie lines never change, although i know your not talking about them....
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Old 10-19-2009, 02:07 PM   #3 (permalink)
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I think you'd be pretty safe to bet on Machida tbh. Of all the LHW champs we've seen in the past couple of years he's looked the most impressive and the most likely to retain. He's also fighting a guy in Shogun, who basically has a less refined version of Machida's own style; relying on counter striking and striking from strange angles, just with abit more crazyness and aggression, which I think will be his downfall.

Shogun's hard to time and strikes from strange angles, but so does Machida, and Machida avoids strikes far better than Shogun does. I think it'll be a matter of Lyoto feeling Shogun out early and then as soon as he's worked out Rua's timing it'll be all over. Machida via TKO/KO in the 2nd.
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Old 10-19-2009, 03:45 PM   #4 (permalink)
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personally I think machida is a pretty sure bet, followed closely by rumble
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Old 10-19-2009, 04:02 PM   #5 (permalink)
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I think you're overlooking one thing when talking about Lyoto's ability to retain the belt. As mentioned, his dream has always been to be champion, this dream will fuel his desire to defend it. Also, Machida has stated that he isn't going into this fight believing he needs to defend the belt, but win it again.

He is putting himself into a place mentally where he is going into a title bout, not as the champion, but as one of two challengers. Lyoto has a strong will and a strong mind, so I believe this envisioning will allow him to be motivated.

Though I want Shogun to win with all of my heart, my brain tells me that Machida wins this 8 out of 10 times.
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Old 10-19-2009, 04:22 PM   #6 (permalink)
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I have Lyoto winning but his odds are a bit overestimating his chances imo.

I only bet small wagers ($10-30) so I don't like betting on fighters with such high odds.

A successful $20 wager on Lyoto would only yield a $4 profit, meh..
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Old 10-19-2009, 04:36 PM   #7 (permalink)
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I agree, 5dimes has Machida at -430, but remember sports betting is a marathon not a sprint, so maybe you better take your $4 winnings and keep chugging along
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Old 10-19-2009, 04:41 PM   #8 (permalink)
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lol true, you have a good point. But I still think that Lyoto's odds are slightly overestimating his chances in this fight and that's a big reason why I won't bet any money on him.
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Old 10-19-2009, 04:42 PM   #9 (permalink)
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i dont think Machida will be making any of those first time champ mistakes. He's just not the type. As for the issue of retention... i think the bigger risk is Lyoto reverting to his old form and evading for a win. While i enjoy watching that style of elite striking many do not. The forcast calls for boos. But whether he wins with counter strikes or with evasion... i think he wins it either way.

i think the odds are spot on too. +300 is really a punchers/subs chance which is what i give my man Shogun.
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Old 10-19-2009, 04:51 PM   #10 (permalink)
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i put down 50 bucks on shogun (not with a bookie or anything just with my frientd), i dont really think he'll win tbh but **** it i was drunk when i made the bet and shoguns my boy haha
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