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Pros Picks: Machida vs. Shogun

3K views 24 replies 14 participants last post by  SpecC 
#1 ·
Silver screen starlets, fledgling rock bands, earthquakes, the absence of an NFL team -- you name it, and Los Angeles has it in droves.

Zuffa returns to the City of Angels for the first time in more than three years with UFC 104 “Machida vs. Shogun” this Saturday at the Staples Center. In the main event, light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida defends his title against 2005 Pride Fighting Championships middleweight grand prix winner Mauricio Rua.

Sherdog.com recently gathered predictions from a number of professional fighters and trainers to gauge how they think the UFC 104 headliner will unfold.

Cub Swanson: Machida wins by second-round karate chop.

Jason Lambert: Machida [by] TKO.

Marvin Eastman: Machida by ugly decision.

Rory Markham: I love Shogun and his style, but it’s so hard to bet against Machida as of late. I’ll take the crazy pee-drinking karate man.

Eddy Millis: Machida, Machida, Machida! First-round KO, [courtesy of his] right hand.

Travis Lutter: I think Machida will win this one. Machida’s movement and footwork should be the difference.

Erin Toughill: I’m sure both will have respect for the other’s stand-up at first. I hope Machida starts out a little quicker than usual, but since he’s a counter puncher, he’ll probably wait for Shogun to create an opening, and Machida will capitalize off that. Machida wins by TKO in the second round.

Zac George: Machida uses his bizarre movement and cat-like reflexes to pick apart Rua en route to a second-round TKO.

Nick Thompson: Machida defeats opponents who are overly aggressive, and Shogun is all aggression. That being said, I am always wrong on these things, so bet the farm on Shogun.

Urijah Faber: Machida [via] side kick to the throat.

Roland Sarria: I think Shogun will win with a donkey-bong punch in the third round.

Jamie Varner: Machida defeats [Rua] by TKO.

Tom Gavrilos: One thing an elite counterpuncher loves is over-aggressiveness and wide looping punches. I’ve always been a big Shogun fan, but I choose Machida by decision. If you believe that styles make fights, it’s hard to give the nod to Shogun.

Stav Economou: Machida by KO in the third round.

Michael Guymon: Machida is gonna be too much. Shogun will have trouble with Machida’s distance and game, in general. [Machida by] KO in the third round.

Thomas Denny: Machida by second-round TKO. “The Dragon” will reign supreme.

Ben Saunders: Tough fight to call. Shogun is a badass fighter, and this fight will show how good Machida is, going against a fellow striker. In the end, I believe Machida is just too good at being elusive. Honestly, anyone that is set to fight him should bring in top notch karate guys to work with in order to understand the style matchup. You gotta love the unorthodox fighters.

Mike Ciesnolevicz: I think Shogun is an awesome fighter. Against anyone else, I might pick him, but I don’t even think the fight will be that competitive style-wise. I think Machida has the better stand-up, better takedowns, probably at least equal if not better [Brazilian jiu-jitsu] and better cardio. Add that to the fact he doesn’t even get hit in his fights. I don’t know what Shogun can possibly do to win this fight outside of landing a bomb in an exchange after trying to cut Machida off and make him trade. Outside of Fedor and some of the other top heavyweights in MMA and maybe Anderson Silva -- even though they won’t fight because they are friends -- I don’t see who can really test Machida. Call me crazy, but I actually think Machida would beat Brock Lesnar by being a smarter, faster, more elusive fighter, not to mention a superior mixed martial artist. I think it’s great that he said after five title defenses he wants to fight Lesnar. He is a true martial artist and maybe the greatest fighter in the world. Machida by TKO, round two.

Robin Black: When you hear a guy talking about defending his title five times, then fighting Brock Lesnar, you could be forgiven for thinking he’s looking past his opponent. Hell, probably everyone is looking past Shogun. His in-your-face style is tailor made for The Dragon’s near mythical lightning counter fighting. But don’t just arbitrarily count Shogun out. He’s a proud, explosive athlete who’s been training for his title shot. And this is the UFC. Anything can happen. I’m going out on a limb -- and being mocked by my training partners here at Xtreme Couture Toronto -- and picking Shogun by TKO.

Kit Cope: I think Rua’s aggressive style may just be the key to disarming Machida. It may be tough for Lyoto to set his karate up with Shogun running him down constantly. Conversely, Machida could just have Rua chase him around until he’s tuckered, then take advantage. I tend to believe the latter.

Gabe Ruediger: Machida should win. His striking is too precise and his movement is too good. His ground game is more than competent, as well. It’s a fight, and Shogun is very dangerous, so anything can happen, but I’m going with Machida by TKO in round two or three.

Stephane Vigneault: I think Machida is alone in his division right now. His stand-up style is very, very effective, and he is pretty well-rounded. [I like] Machida by TKO in round three, but we never know. Maybe a Shogun wild hook can [land].

John Hackleman: My prediction is that it’ll be a great fight between two great fighters, but I think Machida’s karate is going to be a little too much for Shogun to handle; a little too unorthodox, a little too unpredictable. I think he’s going to be a little too accurate, and I think he’s going to pick apart Shogun. I think Machida’s karate is almost invincible. I don’t know if he’s going to win by knockout, but I think, if not, it’s going to be a decision. The only reason why I won’t predict a knockout is because Shogun is so good and so tough, but I think Machida’s karate is going to reign supreme in this fight, with pinpoint accuracy, timing and flawless technique.

Pros that picked Machida: 21
Pros that picked Rua: 2

Wow... 21 vs 2 in favor of Lyoto.

Most one sided pros picks ever?
 
#2 ·
Not shocking, to be honest.

Shogun is a terrible matchup for him. Shogun is a wild striker who throws looping punches and doesn't have the best striking defense, as well as being aggressive. Shogun's style is literally made for Machida to win. Not only that, but Machida is amazing at this style, at countering, it's not the case of a counter fighter against an aggressive, in your face fighter, it's a case of THE BEST counter fighter in MMA against an aggressive, wide looping punching guy in Shogun.

Easy win so long as Machida can keep it standing, which I believe he will be able to do.
 
#4 ·
Man i can't believe everyone is writing off Shogun so easily, Chuck was taylor made to KO him and look what happened there i know Chuck is not who he used to be but Shogun is great fighter and i dont think the is gona be the pushover that everyone is expecting.

I think Shogun has a real good chance and i personally think his gona shock allot of people and take the LHWC with a 2nd round TKO.
 
#5 ·
I won't count Rua out. I never have, and doubt I will for the forseeable future, but I agree with the 21 pros who pick Lyoto here, though I bet for the odds on Shogun.

The division would look pretty different if he wins, though...all of a sudden guys who wouldn't be picks to have a shot against the dragon would be legitimate contenders. Styles make DIVISIONS, not just fights.
 
#7 ·
Why would we disappear? Unlike the Penn nuthuggers pre-GSP fight we haven't actually talked a ton of smack about Machida in countless topics hanging on each retarded interview Penn gave ("I'll fight to death", "GSP Roids!" etc).
Shogun is insanely entertaining fighter who one shouldn't count out too easily, but even I have to admit he is the underdog here. Win or lose Im 100% sure Shogun will give us a great entertaining fight, but Machida has the belt for a reason and if Shogun loses there is no reason for anyone to disappear. ^^
 
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#10 ·
Everyone is constantly saying that Shogun is a bad matchup. But that's just it. Nobody wants two counter punchers. There's gotta be at least one aggressor to make it interesting. Hope it goes three rounds or at least TWO. Shogun is the shit...but Machida should take him out with fluid motion, footwork, and precise counters.

Muay Thai vs Karate

It's gonna be good...
 
#11 ·
{disclaimer}
I'm of the popular camp that thinks Shogun will lose due to Machida picking him apart... It seems like it should be TOO EASY for Machida, yes?
{end disclaimer}

But I'm starting to have a funny feeling this fight has upset written all over it. Most people have already dismissed Shogun, and even Machida himself is talking about what he is going to do after he defends the belt 5 times. And while I'm sure Machida has the discipline and has properly game-planned for Shogun, it just irked me in a looking-past an opponent kinda way.

I just have this really funny feeling that yes, Machida will hit Shogun when Rua engages, but that Shogun will eat the exchange from Machida in order to deliver a flash ko.

Just a funny feeling -- no, I can't possibly qualify what would make me think Machida's chin will give since he hasn't been ko'd, yet alone hit! Just a hunch. That probably won't happen...
 
#12 ·
{disclaimer}
I'm of the popular camp that thinks Shogun will lose due to Machida picking him apart... It seems like it should be TOO EASY for Machida, yes?
{end disclaimer}

But I'm starting to have a funny feeling this fight has upset written all over it. Most people have already dismissed Shogun, and even Machida himself is talking about what he is going to do after he defends the belt 5 times. And while I'm sure Machida has the discipline and has properly game-planned for Shogun, it just irked me in a looking-past an opponent kinda way.

I just have this really funny feeling that yes, Machida will hit Shogun when Rua engages, but that Shogun will eat the exchange from Machida in order to deliver a flash ko.

Just a funny feeling -- no, I can't possibly qualify what would make me think Machida's chin will give since he hasn't been ko'd, yet alone hit! Just a hunch. That probably won't happen...

As the resident Machida nut hugger of the forum, he has addressed this, stating its more important to him to defend the title now he has won it and his focus is totally on Shogun...

That said what you described above could happen....I just dont see it. I say that not from his nutts but just from an observational perspective....:thumbsup:
 
#13 ·
Contrary to popular belief, i think bull rushing Machida (or Silva) is prob a GREAT idea. I never understood this "style is tailor made" crap.... yea.... so to beat machida, you should just stand there and make him be the aggressor... right??? except.... he still wont.... so you will just stand there... awesome. I really think Machida loves when ppl do this, give him a min or 2 to get relaxed, find your timing and his range. I much rather a bullrush approach mixed with perhaps a surprising takedown (ppl forget Shogun is actually has a VERY good top ground game).

Machida has not been tested by a very experienced, devastating striker yet, im not guaranting victory for Shogun, but i like his chances, he has a style that could make Machida very uncomfortable from the opening bell, which i think is much better then what everybody else has done.... let him get comfortable and counter you to death.

I do like the "machida never ko'd" thing so how could Shogun possiblely KO him???? How many times has Shogun been KO'd before??? oh yea....
 
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#15 ·
Contrary to popular belief, i think bull rushing Machida (or Silva) is prob a GREAT idea. I never understood this "style is tailor made" crap.... yea.... so to beat machida, you should just stand there and make him be the aggressor... right??? except.... he still wont.... so you will just stand there... awesome. I really think Machida loves when ppl do this, give him a min or 2 to get relaxed, find your timing and his range. I much rather a bullrush approach mixed with perhaps a surprising takedown (ppl forget Shogun is actually has a VERY good top ground game).

Machida has not been tested by a very experienced, devastating striker yet, im not guaranting victory for Shogun, but i like his chances, he has a style that could make Machida very uncomfortable from the opening bell, which i think is much better then what everybody else has done.... let him get comfortable and counter you to death.

I do like the "machida never ko'd" thing so how could Shogun possiblely KO him???? How many times has Shogun been KO'd before??? oh yea....


Did you watch the countdown dude? I ask because many of the questions and issues in terms of plan of attack from Shogun were addressed by Lyoto....It was a good watch...some of the things you mentioned are addressed by each fighter on the countdown.....:thumbsup:
 
#14 ·
It's surprising to see the former #1LHW have such poor odds against the current #1LHW. Just a testament to how mystifying Machida's style is. If I wanted to make the safe bet I would obviously pick Machida but I've got that "upset" feeling tingling away at the moment...Still picking Machida :thumb02:
 
#19 · (Edited)
yea t. silva and shogun are exactly alike... except shogun has actually fought ppl.... same goes for rashad, who isnt even really a true striker like shogun, he is a wrestler and forgot his roots (something i dont think will happen again). Shogun is a much different striker then T. Silva and his ground game is much better imo]

btw the most ridic "only way to beat machida" i have ever heard... yea, be better at machida karate then machida... good plan, can you be my coach?

shogun is better at muay thai then machida, i would also say bjj and his top game is more devastating.... but you are saying you have to be better at EVERYTHING to beat him... ppl make him out to be God, he will be beaten.
 
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#21 ·
yea t. silva and shogun are exactly alike... except shogun has actually fought ppl.... same goes for rashad, who isnt even really a true striker like shogun, he is a wrestler and forgot his roots (something i dont think will happen again). Shogun is a much different striker then T. Silva and his ground game is much better imo]

btw the most ridic "only way to beat machida" i have ever heard... yea, be better at machida karate then machida... good plan, can you be my coach?

shogun is better at muay thai then machida, i would also say bjj and his top game is more devastating.... but you are saying you have to be better at EVERYTHING to beat him... ppl make him out to be God, he will be beaten.
Shogun is def better at Muay Thai but they are both BJJ black belts and the BJJ doesnt even mattter cuz this isnt gonna be one of those fights. I agree with you that if he is going to win he is gonna have to catch Machida with an all out assault, the problem that may bring is a simple pivot and counter from Machida.....

I dont see a ground fight, but i certainly think if I were a Shogun fan i would want him to get on Lyoto and bing it hard and fast...

So evolving from a pure wrestler to an MMArtist is forgetting your roots now? Wow... I'm glad you were here to inform me of that. Shogun hasn't beaten anyone of note since he could no longer stomp and kick people's heads on the ground. He got beat by Forrest before Forrest was half the fighter he is today, he beat a gassed, ancient Coleman and a Washed-Up Chuck who has been KO'd in 3 of his last 5 fights and he lost 4 of them. Shogun may pose a slight threat to Machida but he is simply not on his level at this point.

Also, my plan for beating Machida is thousands of times better than "U guyz shuld just bullrush him!" You at least have to be better than Machida standing to get past his striking, then you have to be able to hit the dude which not many people can even do, or you have to be better than him on the ground and after seeing his ground game against a well versed wrestler in Ortiz and his crazy game against Sokky, that's going to be very hard for Shogun to do.


^^^This I agree^^^:thumbsup:
 
#20 ·
So evolving from a pure wrestler to an MMArtist is forgetting your roots now? Wow... I'm glad you were here to inform me of that. Shogun hasn't beaten anyone of note since he could no longer stomp and kick people's heads on the ground. He got beat by Forrest before Forrest was half the fighter he is today, he beat a gassed, ancient Coleman and a Washed-Up Chuck who has been KO'd in 3 of his last 5 fights and he lost 4 of them. Shogun may pose a slight threat to Machida but he is simply not on his level at this point.

Also, my plan for beating Machida is thousands of times better than "U guyz shuld just bullrush him!" You at least have to be better than Machida standing to get past his striking, then you have to be able to hit the dude which not many people can even do, or you have to be better than him on the ground and after seeing his ground game against a well versed wrestler in Ortiz and his crazy game against Sokky, that's going to be very hard for Shogun to do.
 
#22 ·
i dont want to make excuses for ppl, if u think the shogun u saw vs forrest (which is the worst ive seen and it was still a close fight til it get finished) and coleman is the best he can be now, i guess we disagree....

rashad "evovling" from wrestler to pure mma?? oh yea mean dancing around getting beat by chuck looking for the one bomb?? yea, what progression.... losing to forrest and looking for that one bomb??? man the guy has "evovled" since those exciting display vs bisping.... he realized he had KO power and thats all he looked for, bigtime wake up call, and for you to say he was anywhere near to a complete mma fighter in his last fights.... i dunno, if continually looking for the 1 shot KO is complete i guess he was... i expect WAY more transitions from high/low, strikes/takedowns, confidence in leg strikes (rashad threw ONE vs machida and looked very nervous doing it, and pretty much never did again).....

forrest was half the fighter he is now?? lol give shogun that rematch plz.... i need easy $....

to beat machida, you gotta be better at everything then machida.... you realize how silly this sounds?? to beat the New England Patriots.... you need to play better at every facet of the game then them..... who woulda thought?? Damn he got a UD over the legendary and still note worthy tito?? he must be a ground GOD!!! no questions there... he subbed the not massively overrated and gas quicker then me eating tacos, Sokky!! Well, he obv is the best on the ground in the LHW divisions... no further tests needed.

How about for the fun of it, we let him fight a bunch of top 5 guys of varying techniques who may even be tougher opponents then the 2 aforementioned legends, then the picture may be more clear ;)

btw with the odds, gotta go with shogun, its a no brainer imo
 
#23 ·
The only person who is going to beat Machida is someone with a sick chin, who has great, technical striking so he doesn't leave holes in his defense, who isn't aggressive and can pick his shots when needed, who has great wrestling so he can take the fight to the ground after he gets beyond Machida's striking, then have a solid, solid BJJ game to use his wresting/BJJ to keep Machida down and work on points or try for subs. There is no one like this right now at LHW.

Shogun has good BJJ, but it's not enough to submit Lyoto, he has good takedowns, but lined up with Lyoto's TDD and his sweeps, control, it isn't enough to get the job done. These are two things that Shogun MIGHT be able to use and work against Lyoto and have success, but first Shogun needs to somehow find a way to use his loopy, sloppy, wild aggressive striking to get inside of a Karate master who has the best timing, ability to move out of harms way, and countering in all of MMA. This will not happen.

This fight ends when Shogun decides it's time to put a hard pace on Machida, as he leaves himself wide open and has many holes in his striking that Machida can exploit. Going by what Shogun has said, it means this fight ends as soon as it starts.
 
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