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Old 10-24-2009, 12:09 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Graph of Reach vs. Win percentage?

Has anyone made a graph of reach versus win percentage to see if there's a ratio that develops the larger the difference between fighters?

This graph would look at the winners of fights within the UFC and see their difference in reach. Let's say there have been 100 fights with one fighter having a 2 inch or less or reach than their opponent, and that the greater reach has won 64 times. Boom, put that on the x y graph. Next, add those from 2 - 4 inches, change it from raw number of fights to percentage wins, continue down the line, and you're done.

Note: when I say reach I mean hand reach for now.
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Old 10-24-2009, 12:28 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Interesting concept I've never considered the advantage that reach may have overall, in all weight classes. Its like professional betters trying to handicap an nfl or nba game. You may be on to something.
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Old 10-24-2009, 12:30 AM   #3 (permalink)
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The reach in UFC isn't nearly as big as they make it out to be, it's actually half of the reach advantage. If someone has a 6 inch reach advantage it's actually only three, as they measure from knuckle to knuckle. Interesting concept though for sure.
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Old 10-24-2009, 12:39 AM   #4 (permalink)
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ya but every inch counts look at silva's ko punch against forrest, one or two inches shorter and the spider would not have connected.
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Old 10-24-2009, 01:12 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Yeah I know that's true, but a true 6 inch advantage is devastating. The guy on the bad end of that wouldn't be able to hit the other at all almost. 3-4 inches is still quite significant also, but a UFC reading of 4 inches is really only two, which isn't all that significant outside of throwing jabs.


Also, Silva has 3/10ths an inch more reach than Forrest, so the punch was more well timed and well placed than having a reach advantage. His reach is 77.6 while Forrest's is 77.
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Old 10-24-2009, 07:35 AM   #6 (permalink)
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I read that the reach measures from finger tip to finger tip across the back or shoulders. So someone with a larger torso may have a big reach in terms of numbers. But when it comes down to actual arm length and ability to punch, it's not that much of an advantage at all.

Don't quote me on that, not sure how accurate that is.
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Old 10-24-2009, 08:12 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Yea, reach really sucks for guys like Sherk who are shorter. He has good boxing too, but his reach is too short to connect and he never says within the pocket. The good thing about MMA vs. boxing though is that the shorter guys can make up for their reach disadvantage in higher weight classes by using wrestling or BJJ where they have an advantage with elbows.

I would say that on the ground, shorter reach is better since you can reign down elbows pretty easily and more powerful punches. Standing, its a different story.
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Old 10-24-2009, 08:17 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Reach might be a factor on the stand up but once the fight goes to the ground, in my opinion, it does not affect the fight outcome as much anymore.
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Old 10-24-2009, 08:17 AM   #9 (permalink)
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My initial instinct was that longer reach is always better. However, I'm not sure what would work better when wrestling or in the clinch. There's also elbows to consider. From what my puny brain can process, wouldn't a shorter arm be better at landing elbows from the inside/clinch?

Having said all that, the 5 champions all have good reach. Penn maybe is the weakest in that department but makes up for it with a very cool boxing game.
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Old 10-24-2009, 08:26 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Soojooko View Post
My initial instinct was that longer reach is always better. However, I'm not sure what would work better when wrestling or in the clinch. There's also elbows to consider. From what my puny brain can process, wouldn't a shorter arm be better at landing elbows from the inside/clinch?

Having said all that, the 5 champions all have good reach. Penn maybe is the weakest in that department but makes up for it with a very cool boxing game.
BJ's actually pretty tall for a lightweight though. At 5'9", he is one of the taller lightweights with more of the LWs being at around 5'5"-5'7".

And I suspect a short reach would be better in the clinch since you don't have to wind up your shot. I know shorter limbs help elbows from the ground though.
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