I still got Cain winning this. His striking has impressed me more than Nog's and if he wont get stupid like Randy and jumps into Nog's guard he can control where the fight goes.
Also if Cain plays it smart like Lesnar did against Mir and only goes to ground when he can secure good position instantly (Brock stood up from Mir's guard and took him down right after and ended up in side control) we might actually see Nog finished for second time by Cain's nasty G&P.
Cain by TKO/UD unless Nog manages to pull another miracle sub after getting beaten up for almost 3 rounds already.
"When I land that left hook, the fight will be over." -Paul Daley (He called it!)