From what we’ve seen on the show it looks like Marcus has the advantage on paper. Then again TUF has really slanted things this season and no one is unaware of it. But I can’t shake the feeling that Mittrione was portrayed as lazy in TUF. After the ice-bag on shoulders episode they never showed him training hard. Since he didn’t gas instantly like many others and TUF has really slanted everything this season, I personally think Matt does train hard. He also brought a lot of focus to his matches.
I do think he is a drama-princess and maybe has Munchausen’s complex. He certainly hammed those ‘injuries’ up without ever being hurt but did focus come fight time.
From the fights we know Marcus will have the advantage on the ground and Matt will have the advantage standing. Most likely Marcus has the advantage overall. But if Matt comes in focused and prepared for the ground he has a solid chance.
Personally, I want Matt to win, because Marcus’ outburst was a spectacle of stupidity and emotional immaturity. It makes me wonder how he deals with people in his every day life. And yes, because of this bias I hope Mittrione takes it.