I think Cain will do what he did against Kongo and Rothwell. They will be standing for about 15 seconds, then Cain will go for the takedown and ground and pound him. Nog's reactions are slower now and he won't be able to stop Cain from taking him down and keeping him there.
Cain by UD, because he won't stop Nog.
I highly doubt Nog is afraid of being stuck on the ground..if anything that should be cains nightmare lol he takes nog down and cant get back up before one of his limbs is seperated from his body.
HW: Arlovski, CroCop, Mir
LHW: Wandy, Rampage, Liddell
MW: Marquardt, Silva, Franklin
WW: GSP, Hughes
ALWAYS backin my boy Matt Hammill, BISPING IS A TOOL, WAR HAMMILL!