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Old 02-18-2010, 10:02 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Exclamation TraMaI's UFC 110 Breakdown and Predictions!

What's up MMAF? It's been a long time since I've done one of these (UFC 94?) and with all the predictions floating around, I decided to do my own again, so here it comes!

Mirko CroCop vs "Big" Ben Rothwell


This fight is incredibly hard to predict for me. While I see the former IFL HW champ as being extremely overrated, I also see CroCop as past his prime and it's very hard to predict if he's going to come back in the correct mental state and physical shape to destroy people like the CroCop of PRIDE did. CroCop is very obviously the better striker in this fight when he shows up. He has KO power in each of his hands as well as MASSIVE KO power in the left leg of his. CroCop has fantastic TDD and a VERY good scramble, too. If CroCop shows up like he should, he should utterly DOMINATE this fight in my opinion. I think CroCop WILL show up, too, coming off that big fiasco after his Al-Turk and leaving the UFC, I think he'll want to redeem his honor in the fans eyes. I see a newly motivated CC coming in, controling the stand-up and stuffing takedowns on his way to a second round T/KO stoppage.

Ryan "Darth" Bader vs Kieth "The Dead of Mean" Jardine
Another hard-to-predict fight. Jardine has this really weird style of fighting where he tends to leave his chin exposed and has a very, very unorthadox striking style. Bader, on the other hand, has a very classic boxing style even if he swings wide on all his punches. The thing is with Bader though is that he also tends to leave his chin up after the first couple minutes of a fight or round. Bader obviously has the wrestling advantage in this fight, but Kieth is no slouch when it comes to TDD or his ground game. Kieth has a solid guard to help him keep from taking damage, but Bader has a relentless wrestling style and I'm not sure if Jardine's guard will hold up against it early. However, in his last fight, Bader showed an extreme lack of cardio against Schafer and I think that is the deciding factor of this fight. Jardine may look tired at times, but you can never really tell because of his style, and even when he looks tired he's still putting up pressure and coming forward. I think as long as Jardine can make it out of the first round of this fight (which he'll most likely lose), he takes this fight by a come-from-behind UD with the two later round solidly won.

George Sotiropolous vs Joe "Daddy" Stevenson

This fight has been the subject of high debate here on the forum, but I think George has his number. George is a VERY high level grappler and has some decent boxing. While his striking may be a question mark, his grappling is not. He's an ADCC veteran (being eliminated by Marcelo Garcia, who is also the only man to defeat Demian Maia), a BJJ black belt and has shown a knack for adopting him submission game to MMA. His boxing should allow him enough defense standing and he should have enough reach to keep Joey at bay with his jab and trigger Joey to try and take it to the floor later on. Stevenson, while having some solid defense and a good sub game of his own, has been submitted by almost every high level BJJ player he's fought outside of Nate Diaz. I'm thinking George via submission, RNC rd 2.

Michael "The Count" Bisping vs Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva

Oh man, one of my favorite fights on the card by far. Totally hyped on this fight, but I digress. I think this fight is going to end up being nothing but stand up, there may be the occasional take down attempt from The Count, but I don't think it will be fruitful and if it is, Wand will be able to stand up fairly quick. So striking, these two fighters have DRASTICALLY different style. Bisping is a very technical, accurate kick boxer, while Wanderlei tends to have a wild, wide swinging and powerful Muay Thai game. Bisping being the counter puncher in this fight, I think has the advantage. Bisping has solid footwork and great angles to keep him away from Wanderlei's in-your-face style. I think, using this game plan of stick and move, Bisping can work his way to a decision win. The Count via UD.

The Main Event
Cain Valasquez vs Antonio "Minotauro" Rodrigo Nogueria


And finally we come to the main event of the evening! This fight is HUGE in the HW standings of the UFC. The winner of this fight is solidified at #3 HW in the UFC and presumably gets the next shot at the Heavy Weight Champion. My breakdown of this fight is as Follows:
Cain has some HUGE power behind his hands, some great technical boxing with some great hand speed but lacks movement. He's also in phenomenal shape and is a fantastic wrestler.
Nogueria is a living legend. He has some good boxing with great movement and counters, but I think he lacks the speed Cain has. As we all know, Big Nog is a stud on the ground being the submission wizard that he is. He also has one of the biggest hearts and hardest chins in MMA, so expect him to fight any fight until the very end, even if he's losing handily.
This fight is razor close for either fighter. I think Nogueria can win the stand-up as his boxing is better from a technical stand point. We rarely see Big Nog throwing wild, looping punches. The thing is that Cain also has some serious recovery power as we saw against Kongo, so I don't think either fighter is getting finished on the feet. On the ground, it's dead even. Nog can finish on the ground with his massive list of submissions, even off his back he seems to lock them out of nowhere when he gets a chance. Cain, as I stated, is a fantastic wrestler with very good top control and some solid GnP. So where does this fight stand if both fighters are equal on almost all terms? It comes down to control in my opinion. I think Nogueria is too complacent being on his back and looking for submissions, which in the UFC works against him in a big way. I think, if Cain can avoid Nog's submission game, he should be able to take Nog down, retain top control and grind his way to a UD.





Feel free to tell me what you think about the breakdown and my predictions
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Old 02-18-2010, 10:07 AM   #2 (permalink)
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LOL Tra what can I say.. I don't think you will make it far in the CPL^^

I really only agree with Cain!

You need a miracle for the CPL I guess but nice breakdown!
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Old 02-18-2010, 10:26 AM   #3 (permalink)
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I have to Wand/Bisping & Nog/Cain fight exactly the same as you.

So I hope you are right - Ignore Bobby, he knows nothing

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Old 02-18-2010, 10:32 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Nice work, Tra. Would like to see how you predict the prelims, though, as there are some very good fights taking place that seem PPV quality on paper imo.

The Bisping/Wanderlei fight has gone up and notch in anticipation because of the cool press conference. Bisping seems confident and Wanderlei seems like..Wanderlei, but I have to disagree with when you say that the fight is going to stay standing up, even though that prediction makes the most sense.

I honestly think Bisping will want to surprise Wanderlei early on by going for the takedown, just like Chuck did to Wanderlei in the 3rd round of their fight. HOWEVER, Bisping doesn't have the wrestling prowess to hold Wanderlei down, and I think by midway point of the 1st round Wanderlei will stand up and simply attempt to overwhelm Bisping, catch him with a hard hook and TKO him late in the 1st round.

Completely agree about the Jardine/Bader fight. All depends on that first round. If it ends there, then it's likely Bader's knocked out Jardine, if it's out of the 1st round, then i'm 75% sure that Jardine will take home what is a must win for him.
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Old 02-18-2010, 11:20 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by BobbyCooper View Post
LOL Tra what can I say.. I don't think you will make it far in the CPL^^

I really only agree with Cain!

You need a miracle for the CPL I guess but nice breakdown!
Care to elaborate on that? IMO, there's no real "Ballpark" guesses going on there. Nog HAS to finish Cain on the ground if he's going to win that fight and I see Cain's option is much more viable than Nog's. Bisping is wonderful at counter punching and Wand leaves a ton of openings. Bisping is very close to being the same fighter as Rich Franklin IMO, with more speed.

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Nice work, Tra. Would like to see how you predict the prelims, though, as there are some very good fights taking place that seem PPV quality on paper imo.
I was thinking about doing them, I usually do, but a couple of those fights are either not worth braking down (Sinosec) or I don't know much about the fighters (Te-Huna)... might do them in a bit after I research them further.

Quote:
The Bisping/Wanderlei fight has gone up and notch in anticipation because of the cool press conference. Bisping seems confident and Wanderlei seems like..Wanderlei, but I have to disagree with when you say that the fight is going to stay standing up, even though that prediction makes the most sense.
Said it's going to basically remain standing. I think there may be a couple takedowns on Bisping's part, but I also think that the fight will be back on the feet really quickly and not much is going to happen on the ground. The main reason I see Bisping shooting is to steal a round.

Quote:
I honestly think Bisping will want to surprise Wanderlei early on by going for the takedown, just like Chuck did to Wanderlei in the 3rd round of their fight. HOWEVER, Bisping doesn't have the wrestling prowess to hold Wanderlei down, and I think by midway point of the 1st round Wanderlei will stand up and simply attempt to overwhelm Bisping, catch him with a hard hook and TKO him late in the 1st round.
Agree with everything but that last part. I think Bisping learned from his fight with Hendo and will keep his movement solid and quick. I think Wand may try to overwhelm him, but Bisping will circle out and counter.

Quote:
Completely agree about the Jardine/Bader fight. All depends on that first round. If it ends there, then it's likely Bader's knocked out Jardine, if it's out of the 1st round, then i'm 75% sure that Jardine will take home what is a must win for him.
Totally agree with that. Like I said, Bader will likely win the first round of that fight but if Jardine can make it out of there (i think he can as making Bader miss for the first round should be his plan) it should be all Kieth for the next two.
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Old 02-18-2010, 12:14 PM   #6 (permalink)
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I don't think Nog MUST finish on the ground to get a win this weekend. I think that he definitely has better boxing that Cain does although I don't see either of them knocking out the other standing but stranger things have happened. Nog also has by far the best ground game out of anyone Cain has faced. He has a very dangerous guard and he has excellent sweeps. If Cain isn't careful, Nog will sweep him and then Cain's takedown meant nothing.

I think that Nog has more ways to win this fight than Cain. With that being said, if Cain is able to maintain the top position on the ground, avoid submissions, and consistently take Nog down, then I can see him getting a TKO or a decision. But standing up, I have a hard time believing Cain would win nor do I think he wants the fight there.

All in all I am taking Nog on this one. But I can still see Cain being able to pull it off.
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Old 02-18-2010, 12:54 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Good breakdown, I agree with all of them except Cro cop/Rothwell. We all keep saying "I hope the real Cro cop shows up/I think the real Cro cop will show up.". How many times do you say it before you realize it ain't happening? I'd love to see the old Cro cop but it has been years since he showed his old self. Cro cop has trouble with these bigger guys, I think Rothwell will just push Cro cop around en route to a UD.

I wouldn't mind being wrong on that one, I'd love to see a head kick KO.
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Old 02-18-2010, 01:21 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Good breakdown, I agree with all of them except Cro cop/Rothwell. We all keep saying "I hope the real Cro cop shows up/I think the real Cro cop will show up.". How many times do you say it before you realize it ain't happening? I'd love to see the old Cro cop but it has been years since he showed his old self. Cro cop has trouble with these bigger guys, I think Rothwell will just push Cro cop around en route to a UD.

I wouldn't mind being wrong on that one, I'd love to see a head kick KO.
I totally understand what you're saying, but even this new CroCop we've been seeing should destroy Rothwell.
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Old 02-18-2010, 01:33 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Very good breakdown TraMaI. I have to disagree on a few of your picks though of course. Those being the Co-Main and Main event. While I agree with the notion that Mike is a lot like Rich, I don't think he has the patience or the discipline to pull out the Decision like Rich did. Rich even got rocked in his fight with Wand. I don't see Bisping being able to avoid Wandy's offense for the entirety of the fight so I see a 2nd or 3rd round TKO stoppage by Wanderlei though you're pick is the other logical outcome.

Nog/Cain will most likely go exactly how you said but I see Nogueira having the edge in the standup. Cain will most likely get the TD multiple times in this fight so the standing portion of the fight probably wont take place for too long. While Nog is usually content to work for a sub off of his back, I think he'll want to go for a sweep in this fight and either take mount or attempt a sub from the top if the opportunity presents itself. While I admit your scenario is probably more likely, I'm content with my wishful thinking .
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Old 02-18-2010, 01:43 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Just to clarify, I didn't say either fighter (cain/nog) had an edge in stand up. I consider it dead even given their different attributes as fighters.

Nog is more technical with better movement and a better chin

Cain has more power and speed.

The both have incredible recovery power and good defense.

And the thing is is that I don't think Nog will be ABLE to sweep Cain.Cain will come in weighing at least 20 lbs more than Nog and he's a Div I wrestler. I think Nog will have to be content trying to sub him off his back and outside of the first round I don't think it's going to happen due to sweat and other factors.
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