I think Nog is a tough fight for cain, but I'm a little concerned how well Nog will be able to handle Cain's pace.
Although I agree Nog should have an advantage standing up, I can't agree with your comparison of randy's ground game vs Cain's. I think Randy was a better overall wrestler, but at this point in their careers, I think the combination of Cain's size, strength and cardio allows him to have better top control. I think he will be able to stay on top of Nog but I can't see too much significant damage. But I think he can do enough so that the refs won't stand them up.