Originally Posted by IronMan
First off, if you think that Franklin is going to KTFO Jason McDonald without a fight then you need to watch the Leben fight again. As good of a technical striker as Franklin in he does not have the natural power of Leben, as we saw in the fight against Loiseau. His standup is good, but, as Anderson proved, it is overrated.
Rich Franklin is a good fighter, I'll give him that, but if you expect him to beat MacDonald easily, pay attention. Here is the paper:
In 2006 Jason MacDonald fought seven times. He lost once, via lucky chokeout to Patrick Cote.
MacDonald has not been beaten since his fight against Cote, with 6 wins.
MacDonald has finished all of his last 5 opponents.
MacDonald has submitted his last 4 opponents.
In his last two fights MacDonald has submitted two grappler's quest veterans.
In 2006 Rich Franklin fought twice. He also lost once, being thoroughly dominated by Anderson Silva.
Franklin fought David Loiseau in March and broke his hand. He was unable to finish Loiseau, but continued to through his right hand throughout the fight, severly damaging it.
Franklin returned after an 8 month recovery from hand surgery and put on was finished in 2:59 seconds. Statistically, it was the worst performance of his career.
That's the paper, here's what isn't on paper:
In MacDonald's last two fights he taken on fighters with recent losses, Ed Herman (Unanimous Decision loss to Kendall Grove) and Chris Leben. Though Leben's loss was not directly before, you get the point. You want a strange coincedence, both of these losses were to fighters nicknamed "The Spider," but that seems irrelevant.
In both of MacDonald's fights he has been toted by the UFC as the underdog. He has utterly decimated his opponents.
In MacDonald's last two fights he won with an unorthodox submission style. Franklin often relies on scouting videos of his opponents and looking at defending their style. All that he can do with MacDonald is study some BJJ tapes and submission wrestling videos, beyond that MacDonald's submission game is an unknown.
MacDonald has the psychological advantage of never having been defeated in the Octagon. To a fan this might not sound like a lot, but there are certain settings that can make a fighter feel invincible. If MacDonald has been developing that in the Octagon then he will come to the fight confident, regardless of who his opponent is. Franklin is coming of a loss unlike anything he experienced in the Octagon before, so if he had that psychological advantage and that confidence, it is gone.
That's a lot of info, but this is why you can't count out a guy like MacDonald. He has advantages and if he exploits them then he can and will win this fight.
I should also note that this matchup has not been confirmed directly by the UFC.
Again, I never said without a fight but I'm inclined towards that side. I do not think MacDonald is a push over and I agree with many of your points...the thing is MacDonalds standup isnt' so good and so if Rich wins, it'll probably be by domination. I think MacDonald is an outstanding fighter, but I think he's in over his head. Much like hte JOslin vs Koscheck fight, you could argue over and over again that Joslin is no stepping stone and that he's got real skills and be completely right, but Koscheck is still the one you have to predict to come out on top. I see the similar situation here, all the props to Macdonald, but it's not gonna be enough.