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I like his odds for this fight. I think the difference between GSP and Dan Hardy, is Hardy doesn't might getting into a real fight, and likes causing blood, cuts, and hurting his rival.
GSP is more about sport, he loves wrestling and flirts around with striking, but mainly only to setup his take downs. He doesn't sit down on his strikes like hardy.
I think GSP on the other hand only hits for sport, and I don't really believe he likes hitting people, knowing he is/can cause serious damage in a real fight.
Hardy has the fighters spirit. In all of his fights in the UFC, he has found a way to win, all by landing very powerful strikes that hurt and cause cuts/damage when they land.
GSP doesn't like getting hit, and he starts getting scared when he gets wobbled.
These are natural instincts and can't be changed easily. GSP might be ok in practice, but during the big pressure fight, I think mentally he will snap every time he gets hurt, and can be finished fast like serra did.
GSP poses a threat from a pure athletic out wrestle and out stamina your foe. He will try his best to "tire out hardy's power" by grappling with him, out wresling him, and some Ground and pound" If GSP wants to win this fight, he should look for a submission from the top in my opinion, in the first or second round.
I feel hardys Taekwondo Black Belt background will, like machida's karate, allow him to be able to throw strikes which can and will hurt GSP all 5 rounds.
I think for GSP to win, he will need to beat hardy fast in the first or second round by submission some how.
The more this fight lasts, the more chances Hardy will have on his feet, and the likely hood of him landing 1 good punch, elbow or knee throughout a 5 round fight is very good, and when it lands like machida's karate, i think they will hurt GSP.
Hardy's standup isn't perfect, he is open to get tagged, but his chin is granite and he is willing to trade, and eat strikes to land his own. I don't see GSP being able to hurt him at all striking.
This fight comes down to Hardy's Spirit and his Strikes vs GSP's natural athleticism and wrestling using it to setup a top submission.