so, my $25 parlay pays $1000 [thread contains spoilers] - Page 2 - MMA Forum - UFC Forums - UFC Results - MMA Videos
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post #11 of 53 (permalink) Old 03-21-2010, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Toxic View Post
I think you have a great chance of winning that, I may have to go lay down some money with those kind of odds.
A great chance?

Kongo is the better striker, has longer reach and Buentello only has his striking. Buentello has a chance at catching Kongo but he probably only wins 20% of the time in this match up.

Gonzaga has a chance but Dos Santos is on a role and definitely has the stand up advantage. I give him maybe a 30% chance.

Vera imo has the best chance of the 3 to pull out a win, he has experience and is by far Jones' toughest fight. Even at that he probably only has a 40% chance.

Using those numbers all 3 winning is only a 2.4% chance. Which is almost exactly what this parlay is offering. And I think that is actually being conservative. The only one I am betting on is Vera, I don't think the other 2 really have a chance.
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post #12 of 53 (permalink) Old 03-21-2010, 06:19 PM
 
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Originally Posted by alizio View Post
not a bad idea.

i bet on betfred and bodog. i trust both sites.

i may go put more $ on Buentello individually.... im kinda scared he will be the only guy to come thru and ill be up shits creek.

the thing i dont like about this bet. i wouldnt be surprised going 0 for 3 or 1 for 3.

i think tonight is a very unpredictable night and the odds dont represent that.

i hope tonight will be remembered as a night of upsets. the only ppl being happy being Paul, Gabe, Brandon and I

bodog odds arent quite as good but it is the more popular site
http://sports.bodog.ca/sports-bettin...rtial-arts.jsp

you can fully trust bodog.

i have a relationship with betfred as a VIP poker player so i usually bet there.

odds change just like vegas, u need to get on them.
I think alot of people are gonna be surprised tonight, personally I think people put to much credit behind a guy on a roll. Jon Jones looked impressive beating a lower mid tier fighters but lets be honest Vera is a big step up from Hammill and Bonnar. JDS is impressive as hell but how can anyone bet on him with those odds against Gonzaga? I would pick all 3 personally as my favorites to win tonight and would be shocked if you go any less than 2/3 on them.




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post #13 of 53 (permalink) Old 03-21-2010, 06:20 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by 420atalon View Post
A great chance?

Kongo is the better striker, has longer reach and Buentello only has his striking. Buentello has a chance at catching Kongo but he probably only wins 20% of the time in this match up.

Gonzaga has a chance but Dos Santos is on a role and definitely has the stand up advantage. I give him maybe a 30% chance.

Vera imo has the best chance of the 3 to pull out a win, he has experience and is by far Jones' toughest fight. Even at that he probably only has a 40% chance.

Using those numbers all 3 winning is only a 2.4% chance. Which is almost exactly what this parlay is offering. And I think that is actually being conservative. The only one I am betting on is Vera, I don't think the other 2 really have a chance.
hey, im open to letting you take a $25 bet aswell

btw toxic, believe me, im making the bet cuz i think i can win it. Paul looked in great shape at the weightins, no big gut or anything. Brandon looks like he may be a bit in Jons head.

Gabe is my wild card. I think this is the type of situation for him tho, underdog. no pressure. we will see.

Last edited by alizio; 03-21-2010 at 06:24 PM.
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post #14 of 53 (permalink) Old 03-21-2010, 06:34 PM
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i parlay'd clay guida and jon jones to win 300
and bet 145 on hellboy hanson to win 100.

vera has next to no chance in this fight, but the odds are right for two small bets on gonzaga and buentella, cus atleast one of those could pull the upset, expecially if gonzaga can get it to the ground. (hope gonzaga doesn't pull it though, cus i root for dos santos.)

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post #15 of 53 (permalink) Old 03-21-2010, 06:38 PM
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Wow dude those are really good odds for those fights lol. GG has the worst chance out of all of them and his chance is still pretty damn good.
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post #16 of 53 (permalink) Old 03-21-2010, 07:02 PM
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got pretty good odds for Gongaza, Vera amd Kongo. I just don't have faith in Buentello after his fight with Struve. He could barely lift his arms by the end. If the same happens with Kongo he will get smashed.
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post #17 of 53 (permalink) Old 03-21-2010, 07:05 PM
 
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Because of Kongo's great conditioning?




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post #18 of 53 (permalink) Old 03-21-2010, 07:10 PM
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Originally Posted by alizio View Post
hey, im open to letting you take a $25 bet aswell

btw toxic, believe me, im making the bet cuz i think i can win it. Paul looked in great shape at the weightins, no big gut or anything. Brandon looks like he may be a bit in Jons head.

Gabe is my wild card. I think this is the type of situation for him tho, underdog. no pressure. we will see.
I don't bet real money when it comes to mma, too many unknowns about fighters conditioning, injuries and then on top of that every fighter always has a chance. Too much gambling imo.

I play poker instead, 630% return on investment so far

Your odds would have been better to put your money on Dos Santos instead but obviously that would only make you ~$12 instead of $975.
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post #19 of 53 (permalink) Old 03-21-2010, 07:12 PM Thread Starter
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I don't bet real money when it comes to mma, too many unknowns about fighters conditioning, injuries and then on top of that every fighter always has a chance. Too much gambling imo.

I play poker instead, 630% return on investment so far

Your odds would have been better to put your money on Dos Santos instead but obviously that would only make you ~$12 instead of $975.
ive played poker professionally for about 7 years.

that ROI is unsustainable unless your a Stu Ungar/Phil Ivey/Chip Reese hybrid of cash games (or be isildur for about 2 weeks running insanely hot).

Sports betting is definately the downfall of many a great player i know. Thats why i just started with $100 and working from there. I refuse to "redeposit".
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post #20 of 53 (permalink) Old 03-21-2010, 07:15 PM
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Not a bad wager personally I woulda went with 2 underdogs but that's still decent.

Each guy has a good chance of winning but all 3 is gonna be hard.

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