Jones is about about two leagues higher than Bader, Belfort could win IMO. Belfort has been sick lately and is coming in better, he very well could be the guy that beats Silva that has been laying dormant after injury before his camp for this fight and being 36 y.o. - aren't good signs - for a guy whose biggest attributes have been speed and reflexes.
Belfort - health (belfort was ready last November while Silva was still recovering), youth, takedowns (solid), GnP (brutal), hand speed (fast), power (outstanding), in the clinch (strong), BJJ (top notch)
Belfort ending Silva's reign would be shocking in the sense that he ended Anderson Silva's long reign as champion, but he has a good chance. His last two fights, Lawler was one thing, but he showed absolute dominance over Franklin before he unloaded the Fflurry to KO him - the only person to brutalize Ace was a younger, healthier Silva... though Silva did it in more patient, counter striking fashion.
Bader isn't that much better of a striker than Vera or Hammill IMO, his takedowns are good, not great, while Jones has showed absolute dominance, never been in trouble, I see Jones imposing whatever game plan he has in mind and finishing. Bader winning would be more shocking from a match-up stand point.