the problem is now days it's hard to back Cro Cop in any fight, he just feels like a shot fighter.
Schaub is a hard fighter to really judge, whenever a fighter is early on in their career it's difficult to judge their potential (you would expect them to keep growing as fighters)
He has shown a vunerability already, he was KO'd it pretty heavy fashion by Nelson.
They say the last thing a fighters his his punch/power, Cro Cop's timing might be off compared with his prime and his ablity to slip and take a blow may have decreased but no doubt he still has knock out power in his hands and feet so by that notion against a fighter who is not (yet anyway) considered top draw you have to at least give him a punchers chance to win.
The problem is if you look to boxing for a perfect example, you can see the immensely talented but past his prime Roy Jones fighting Calazghe a few years back. In the first round Jones caught Joe with a perfect left hook which knocked the Welsh man down, Jones still had the punch right? but it days gone by that left hook would have been instantly followed by a right cross and another left hand (uppercut or hook) and Calzaghe would not have gotten up to win the fight as he did.
So I figure even if Crop Cop catches Schaub he might not have the reactions and quickness to capatilise on such a momment and he may still drop the decision.
I have to agree that a Schaub decision victory is the most likely, but I will not write Cro Cop off in this fight as I do believe he still has the ability to defeat this level of opponent.