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Old 03-27-2011, 03:05 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Unfortunately I see Jones starting 3-4 fights in a row with a 1.5 cartwheel forehead front kick before anyone comes up with an offensive or defensive strategy that's effective against Jones. He'll probably have a couple 3 second KOs the first two times he tries them, too.
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Old 03-27-2011, 08:14 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Machida is not the same hungry, focused fighter he was on his way up to the belt. He would get tooled by Jones, if not Couture first.
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Old 03-27-2011, 08:18 AM   #13 (permalink)
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This is what I see. There's no way Machida will be the agressor in the beginning. He'll draw Jon Jones and wait for his flashy moves. There he'll figure out his timing and strike with pin point counters. The reach on JBJ will certainly play a role, but I think the later it goes the better Machida has in winning. JBJ is very young and will make a mistake eventually. He started to get tired in his first fight or so if I recall. Greg Jackson said that JBJ was flat out tired by the 2nd round, but still pushed on. That shows an adrenaline dump and lack of experience more or less. Look at GSP and Anderson Silva. They look exactly the same in the fifth round as they do in the 1st round more so with GSP. They conserve energy and are very, very well versed in fighting in a championship setting. It's just another walk in the park for them two.

So first three round goes to JBJ. If it goes to the 4th/5th then I'm betting on Machida.
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Old 03-27-2011, 10:07 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Jones was very tired by the end of the 1st against Shogun, it then took him until halfway through the 3rd to finish the fight. He got knackered in less then 3 rounds, taking hardly any damage, trying to finish a fighter even more tired than he was.

Defeating Rua via TKO in the 3rd is impressive on paper, however watching the fight, the fact he didn't finish it in the 1st is very unimpressive. Doesn't matter if it is Shogun, he had a fighter hurt and losing energy fast early in the first round, and then he himself gassed without even taking damage and took another 2 rounds to get it done.

So yes the key to Jones is to take it to later rounds WITHOUT taking much damage, Shogun defended well on the ground which is what tired Jon, but he didn't play it smart on the feet and make Jon chase him and get frustrated. Any of the Top LHW's including Shogun can do that to Jones on the feet, he is not a technical striker, but I'm not sure that any of them can neutralise Jon's ground game better than Rua did.

Patience + Cardio + emphasis on GnP defense = by 3rd or 4th, Jon's size and explosiveness is less of a factor, and his raw skillset can be taken advantage of. Griffin, Machida, Evans, Rua, Rampage, can all exectue this gameplan and finish Jones in the later rounds, being aggressive in the early rounds is just making the fight much harder than it needs to be.
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Old 03-27-2011, 12:39 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by SM33 View Post
Jones was very tired by the end of the 1st against Shogun, it then took him until halfway through the 3rd to finish the fight. He got knackered in less then 3 rounds, taking hardly any damage, trying to finish a fighter even more tired than he was.

Defeating Rua via TKO in the 3rd is impressive on paper, however watching the fight, the fact he didn't finish it in the 1st is very unimpressive. Doesn't matter if it is Shogun, he had a fighter hurt and losing energy fast early in the first round, and then he himself gassed without even taking damage and took another 2 rounds to get it done.

So yes the key to Jones is to take it to later rounds WITHOUT taking much damage, Shogun defended well on the ground which is what tired Jon, but he didn't play it smart on the feet and make Jon chase him and get frustrated. Any of the Top LHW's including Shogun can do that to Jones on the feet, he is not a technical striker, but I'm not sure that any of them can neutralise Jon's ground game better than Rua did.

Patience + Cardio + emphasis on GnP defense = by 3rd or 4th, Jon's size and explosiveness is less of a factor, and his raw skillset can be taken advantage of. Griffin, Machida, Evans, Rua, Rampage, can all exectue this gameplan and finish Jones in the later rounds, being aggressive in the early rounds is just making the fight much harder than it needs to be.
Hold on a bit!

1. I agree he wasn't the "Duracell Bunny". And yes, he showed signs of getting tired by the end of the 1st and 2nd. But far from gassing.
Greg Jackson admitted himself that he noticed Jones looked tired in the 2nd rd, but was impressed by the way he reacted and managed to keep a very high pace.

To say others could take advantage of him tiring out sounds like a fairy tale atm. And i appreciate the fact you put it like this.

Quote:
WITHOUT taking much damage
It's a tiny-HUGE problem for his opponents, because so far he has brutalised all of his opponents in the first 2 rounds.
Everyone who thinks: "all i have to do is hold on in the first 3 rounds and wait for Jones to get tired, then i will beat him....." - is close to being retarted!

Jones got tired because he was very active on the bottom and on the feet. Especially on the ground: every action he did, was meant to hurt Shogun and tire him out even more.
Even at the expense of him getting tired as well.
But when you are causing more damage to your opponent, even under these circumstances, it's a "great deal".

He was very active on the ground and he didn't go all out in the first, because he had a lot of respect for Shogun's guard. He worked a lot, trying to control Shogun the way he wanted to.
And on the feet, i think he did just fine.

I think he showed a lot of maturity in this fight and executed.

And yes: conditioning is something he still needs to improve. You can never be too prepared in this case.

2. Even in if he were to get too tired, he can do what all MMA fighters do in this kind of situations (especially wrestlers): take their opponent down and grind it out.

3. Some people seem to forget one tiny-tiny thing...
Jones' fight against Shogun was his 2nd in 6 weeks!!!
Basically, Jones had no break between the Bader fight and the Shogun fight.
He had 3 months of camp when preparing for Bader + weight cutting weight + the fight.
And after that he jumped straight in another camp + another weight cut + another fight.

Everyone who doesn't take this into consideration, doesn't know what they're talking about.

Others have done it before and i don't want this to sound like he did the hardest and most impressive thing ever, but if you count both training camps, that's a lot of hard work right there.
And watching "In the Moment", plus listentin to his coaches and his brother, i tend to think he worked his a*s off, in preparation for this fight. I've heard something about 6 hours/day...

At the end of the day it's winning that counts.
And he is good at this.
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Old 03-27-2011, 12:55 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by No_Mercy View Post
This is what I see. There's no way Machida will be the agressor in the beginning. He'll draw Jon Jones and wait for his flashy moves. There he'll figure out his timing and strike with pin point counters. The reach on JBJ will certainly play a role, but I think the later it goes the better Machida has in winning. JBJ is very young and will make a mistake eventually. He started to get tired in his first fight or so if I recall. Greg Jackson said that JBJ was flat out tired by the 2nd round, but still pushed on. That shows an adrenaline dump and lack of experience more or less. Look at GSP and Anderson Silva. They look exactly the same in the fifth round as they do in the 1st round more so with GSP. They conserve energy and are very, very well versed in fighting in a championship setting. It's just another walk in the park for them two.

So first three round goes to JBJ. If it goes to the 4th/5th then I'm betting on Machida.
this is far the best answer
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Old 03-27-2011, 01:53 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Machida via TKO in the second or third round because he would force Jones to strike with him and Lyoto did this his entire Lifetime.
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Old 03-27-2011, 02:03 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Couture will end the myth that is Machida and this talk will cease.

The man to end Jones will be Matt Hamill. He's coming back. For revenge.
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Old 03-27-2011, 02:07 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Couture will end the myth that is Machida and this talk will cease.

The man to end Jones will be Matt Hamill. He's coming back. For revenge.
Let's have a credits bet on the Machida fight??

I put up 300k
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Old 03-27-2011, 02:52 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SM33 View Post
Jones was very tired by the end of the 1st against Shogun, it then took him until halfway through the 3rd to finish the fight. He got knackered in less then 3 rounds, taking hardly any damage, trying to finish a fighter even more tired than he was.

Defeating Rua via TKO in the 3rd is impressive on paper, however watching the fight, the fact he didn't finish it in the 1st is very unimpressive. Doesn't matter if it is Shogun, he had a fighter hurt and losing energy fast early in the first round, and then he himself gassed without even taking damage and took another 2 rounds to get it done.
I think that you are too harsh on Jones here. It does matter that it was Rua/ an elite fighter at a way higher level than his past opponents. Yes, Rua was hurt early, but not in a way to get shut down easily. With his experience Rua was always dangerous to Jones which the latter could only neutralise by putting constant pressure on his opponent (and by quite intelligently disrupting his opponent's rhythm). Because of the pressure, from both sides, it was a very exhausting fight for both fighters. Had Jones gone more for an early finish he really would have risked to gas and be overcome if Rua had managed to bounce back into the game.

The way Jones fought that fight was the optimum he could do with his current skills and abilities (which probably will still improve). I think he couldn't have done it otherwise without raising the risks very much. If he had lowered his pace focussing on a 5 round fight he would have left openings for Rua to imply his game and if he had looked for the finish earlier he would have risk to really gas.

So for the original question whether Jones would survive five rounds. In a fight similar to the Rua fight, without getting a TKO in Round 3, I think Jones would get into trouble in the later rounds. The constant pressure would take its toll, but Machida is not Rua. Machida's fighting style is different from Rua's. Jones wouldn't need to put the same constant pressure on Machida as he did on Rua. So if he is intelligent/cautious enough to pace himself, Jones has a very good chance of surviving five rounds with Machida.

However I also think that Machida with his fighting style could have one of the best chances to win against Jones if he can avoid major damage due to his elusiveness and bring good counters. In a pure pressure vs. pressure fight it seems that no one can compete with Jones at the moment (besides a lucky punch).
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