Shield's ground game is overrated. He's very good at sticking to his opponent, he's a very good grappler but as a submission guy he's not actually as effective as people say he is. He's top level but in terms of GSP, I don't see what he can do. At most keep GSP down for a round but GSP will be the one dictating the pace of the fight.
I will be surprised if Shields even manages one takedown. He hasn't got a Koscheck-esque shot, he's more of a clinch and drag you down or bear hug with a single type wrestler. GSP is far too quick and athletic to be hanging around to let that happen like Hendo did.
It's going to be a bad night for Jake.