Lesnar has better chance against JDS than against Cain - Page 2 - MMA Forum - UFC Forums - UFC Results - MMA Videos
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post #11 of 66 (permalink) Old 04-16-2011, 12:17 AM
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You don't learn getting up from your back in a year, you can train as hard as you want for that year but it still wont happen. Cain has been training wrestling practically his whole life, not to mention he has a speed advantage over both fighters.
Sure you could. Especially when you are athletic enough to fight at the UFC level. This isn't saying JDS is going to be some wrestling super star. But if he works hard enough at TDD and getting back up, I could see him getting at least good enough just to keep the fight standing.

Edit: Not to mention Brock will have to get past JDS' hands before he can get close enough for the TD. JDS' hands are arguably better than Cains too.

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post #12 of 66 (permalink) Old 04-16-2011, 02:52 AM
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I'm sorry but dos Santos is going to ko lesnar. lesnar doesn't have a good chin as shown in the cain and carwin fight. Lesnar just can't take a punch
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post #13 of 66 (permalink) Old 04-16-2011, 03:01 AM
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Lesnar took punches from Carwin and didn't get KO'd... I'd say his chin is fine. It's just his reaction to getting punched that is way wrong.


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post #14 of 66 (permalink) Old 04-16-2011, 09:16 AM
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Round two I think Cigano will knock him out a lot like he did Gonzaga. A big shot that drops and turtles him, then standing ground and pound to knock him out clean.
We'll see. Making Lesnar turtle is quite realistic, but so far nobody has knocked out Lesnar and Dos Santos couldn't knock out the walking heavy bag Nelson even though most of his shots landed clean.

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edit: JDS did throw a high kick against Nelson in the third. He used the same kick Silva did to knock out Belfort and landed right on Nelson's face.
As you mention it, you're right - he did a front kick to Nelson's face. How quick you forget, but maybe it was because I was just searching my memory for high round house kicks.

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And people that think Nelson tried to stand and bang... Nelson attempted SEVEN take-down attempts.
Yes, and Dos Santos did pretty well against them, but then again Nelson's take downs are not really at Lesnar's level. But to say Dos Santos has no TDD and has to start at zero is of course nonsense.

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Lesnar took punches from Carwin and didn't get KO'd... I'd say his chin is fine. It's just his reaction to getting punched that is way wrong.
Yep, right. There is a difference in being afraid of getting hit and having no chin. What difference that makes you could see in the Carwin fight. Had Lesnar had no chin the fight would have been over in the first round.
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post #15 of 66 (permalink) Old 04-16-2011, 10:09 AM
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While I still like JDS' chances to beat up Brock on his feel, I think that Brock has a better chance against JDS than he did against his lopsided a**kicking by Cain Velasquez.

My reasoning is this:
1. As a top HW collegiate wrestler, Cain's double leg takedown defense, and TDD in general, is as good as it gets in the HW division. When Lesnar did take him down, Cain got right back up. How many guys are good enough to get back up with Brock on them? Maybe one - CV.

2. JDS' is a longer, leaner guy who's TDD isn't as good as Cains...Brock has better chance of taking him down and keeping him on the ground. Again, JDS won't get up as easily as Cain did if he gets taken down.

3. JDS likes high kicks and knees more than Cain, who pretty much relies on solid boxing and low kicks, and never really left himself open alot of takedowns with high kicks/knees.

JDS has to throw down to get Brock into his "duck and cover" mode. If he does it'll look like the CV fight, but I think Brock's got a better chance at beating JDS than he ever will against CV.
#1 pretty much sums it up. Brock took Cain down twice. The second time Cain got to his feet was simply amazing. I have to watch it in slow motion just to see what happened.

To be short and to the point: Junior can't do that.

I like JDS a lot but I think his first fight with Brock will look a lot like Mir's second.

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post #16 of 66 (permalink) Old 04-16-2011, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by mastodon2222 View Post
While I still like JDS' chances to beat up Brock on his feel, I think that Brock has a better chance against JDS than he did against his lopsided a**kicking by Cain Velasquez.

My reasoning is this:
1. As a top HW collegiate wrestler, Cain's double leg takedown defense, and TDD in general, is as good as it gets in the HW division. When Lesnar did take him down, Cain got right back up. How many guys are good enough to get back up with Brock on them? Maybe one - CV.

2. JDS' is a longer, leaner guy who's TDD isn't as good as Cains...Brock has better chance of taking him down and keeping him on the ground. Again, JDS won't get up as easily as Cain did if he gets taken down.

3. JDS likes high kicks and knees more than Cain, who pretty much relies on solid boxing and low kicks, and never really left himself open alot of takedowns with high kicks/knees.

JDS has to throw down to get Brock into his "duck and cover" mode. If he does it'll look like the CV fight, but I think Brock's got a better chance at beating JDS than he ever will against CV.
The wrestling pedigree is really the big attribute. Can't buy that experience or learn from it overnight. Crazy thing is, he still got taken down, BUT was able to pop back up TWICE.

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I see Lesnar taking JDS down and it all depends on how good JDS is working off his back, if he can get back up like Cain did, then he has a shot. Anways, I see Brock taking this.

Brock WILL get a takedown in any fight, the question is whether that fighter can get back up.
True, very true. Did it against a black belt practitioner in Mir, fellow wrestler in Carwin albeit winded, and against Cain. When Brock took Cain down, he had a beautiful butterfly guard so Brock wasn't able to get the position he wanted. In that split second Cain popped right back up. I guarantee Dave Camarillo trained that with Cain over and over.

Man I just thought of something. If Brock is fit and does that for all five rounds and JDS doesn't get up it could be a long night. I'm still going with my original prediction from two years ago that JDS will still meet Cain Velasquez to determine who is the ONE. The disparity between Brock's takedown/GNP vs his striking is too large of a gap. His wrestling probably is one of the best in MMA and it's enabled him to win at this level. "IF" he had mediocre striking he'd still fair well like Demian Maia, Jacare, Gonzaga (lack of quality training partners, his conditioning/bad game planning led to his downfall), or Werdum. In that respect he is not a true MMA fighter. He's a wrestler fighting in an MMA setting. Very similar to Matt Hughes where he does one thing and one thing extremely well. Takedowns + GNP. GSP has a wide array of arsenal and can strike if necessary. In fact that's his background; Karate. All in all it's going to be a very interesting fight. I don't think it'll last more than two rounds.

PS: I knew JDS trained at Blackhouse, but what I didn't know was that Anderson Silva is listed as his official trainer along with Big Nog of course.

Last edited by No_Mercy; 04-16-2011 at 10:24 AM.
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post #17 of 66 (permalink) Old 04-16-2011, 10:34 AM
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Good analysis, but I have to disagree. JDS might not have the wrestling Cain does, but he is a bigger guy that will be a little bit harder to take down. Not to mention that everyone knows what Lesnar brings to the table; strong wrestling and weak striking/striking defense. While I do expect for Lesnar to get a couple of TDs, I also see JDS getting up and stuffing some attempts. If he is ready like his training partner Nog was against Davis, another beast of a wrestler, it will be a hard fight for Lesnar. JDS by TKO in round two.
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post #18 of 66 (permalink) Old 04-16-2011, 11:12 AM
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I think we'll see a very good sprawl from JDS and don't forget that he lands punches at every opportunity, excellent at taking advantage of openings.

JDS takes this either by backpeddling KO or Armbar.

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post #19 of 66 (permalink) Old 04-16-2011, 11:49 AM
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I think we'll see a very good sprawl from JDS and don't forget that he lands punches at every opportunity, excellent at taking advantage of openings.

JDS takes this either by backpeddling KO or Armbar.
Is the armbar a joke? its almost impossible to submit Lesnar's upperbody, only way he can get submitted is leg locks.
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post #20 of 66 (permalink) Old 04-16-2011, 12:42 PM
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Is the armbar a joke? its almost impossible to submit Lesnar's upperbody, only way he can get submitted is leg locks.
We know that because of Lesnar's long career of facing high level jiu jitsu fighters.


JDS won't be throwing subs up in this fight though. He might threaten with a kimura to get a sweep (he does that in training a good amount) if he gets taken down, but JDS' main goal here is going to be staying on the feet.


Mir fell into that trap, trying to outwrestle and outgrapple Lesnar instead of just getting to his feet.

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