While I still like JDS' chances to beat up Brock on his feel, I think that Brock has a better chance against JDS than he did against his lopsided a**kicking by Cain Velasquez.
My reasoning is this:
1. As a top HW collegiate wrestler, Cain's double leg takedown defense, and TDD in general, is as good as it gets in the HW division. When Lesnar did take him down, Cain got right back up. How many guys are good enough to get back up with Brock on them? Maybe one - CV.
2. JDS' is a longer, leaner guy who's TDD isn't as good as Cains...Brock has better chance of taking him down and keeping him on the ground. Again, JDS won't get up as easily as Cain did if he gets taken down.
3. JDS likes high kicks and knees more than Cain, who pretty much relies on solid boxing and low kicks, and never really left himself open alot of takedowns with high kicks/knees.
JDS has to throw down to get Brock into his "duck and cover" mode. If he does it'll look like the CV fight, but I think Brock's got a better chance at beating JDS than he ever will against CV.
#1. Carwin also shrugged off Lesnar's takedown attempt in the first. It wasn't until he was gassed that Lesnar was able to get him down.
#2. How does being long and lean make one weaker technically? Cain weighs in at about 240, JDS in the 230s. JDS is leaner than Velasquez, impling more muscle mass per lb, which assuming proper training methods, means more strength per lb.
#3. I have never once seen JDS throw a high kick. He will work leg kicks on occassion, but as a rule, he wins the stand up war with his hands only.
To get Lesnar to duck and cover, all you have to do is punch him in the face with any kind of power. JDS is most assurradly goingto win the stand-up portion of this fight. There is however one big glaring question about this fight, TDD.
JDS has only fought one accomplished wrestler in his UFC career, in Roy Nelson. However Nelson's takedowns are not the explosive power doubles you see from Lesnar, in fact he rarely relies on his takedowns. However against JDS he was unable to achieve anything, he was unable to get inside because of JDS' reach advantage(accurate strong jab), as well as JDS' use of footwork. Those are aspects of TDD, there's more to it than just the sprawl itself. However, his sprawl is something we've never seen, or haven't seen with any regularity.
All anyone has to go on concerning that ability is the rumors coming from Black House. Which say he has great TDD, however, the fighters at Black House aren't known for their takedowns.
In this fight I give the edge to JDS. Lesnar showed his wrestling isn't all its chocked up to be when he weighed 30+ lbs more than a man he couldn't hold down. His technical wrestling for MMA is his biggest flaw. He also lacks any kind of legitimate stand up skills. I base this on his reaction to Cain pummeling the f*ck out of him. A standing hammerfist. Are you f*cking kidding me, a standing hammerfist. If JDS can sprawl, its night-night for Lesnar.