Better chance at upset: Randy or Shields?? - Page 4 - MMA Forum - UFC Forums - UFC Results - MMA Videos
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post #31 of 42 (permalink) Old 04-30-2011, 05:33 AM
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Randy Couture has more of a chance because he's a grappler facing a striker, while Shields is a grappler fighting a grappler
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post #32 of 42 (permalink) Old 04-30-2011, 05:41 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by AlphaDawg View Post
I'd say Shields.

I would have said Couture, had I not seen the weigh ins. Couture looked smaller than usual which makes his chances even slimmer.
I thought Randy looked extra thin at the weigh in, too.
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post #33 of 42 (permalink) Old 04-30-2011, 05:42 PM Thread Starter
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Shields because of the ridiculous odds against him but wouldn't be surprised at all if both Couture and Jake win. My odds would be more like 55/45 Randy and 60/40 for GSP.

These fights are alot closer than the bookies have them
I agree... I'd put them both at about +150.
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post #34 of 42 (permalink) Old 04-30-2011, 05:45 PM
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I agree... I'd put them both at about +150.
That is just a silly thing to say. I would bet every cent I own on GSP -170 against Jake Shields.




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post #35 of 42 (permalink) Old 04-30-2011, 05:48 PM
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Randy out of these two. But I think Homminck has got a great chance at an upset. A punchers chance against a guy that is going to stand with him, not to mention he has the whole crowd behind him.

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post #36 of 42 (permalink) Old 04-30-2011, 05:49 PM Thread Starter
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Well you're not alone - but I personally don't think Shields is being given NEAR enough credit - the guy has tapped out bigger guys and is flat out good, peak of his game and I think GSP will win but will have his hands full.
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post #37 of 42 (permalink) Old 04-30-2011, 05:51 PM
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In reality, this card looks great, but Machida, Aldo and GSP are going to dominate the last three fights and I'd be lying if I said I think this card is going to live up to the card on paper.

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post #38 of 42 (permalink) Old 04-30-2011, 06:08 PM Thread Starter
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Randy has the better chance.

GSP's wrestling offense/defense is tried and true. Stand-up is light-years ahead of Shield's so it will look pretty similar to the Koscheck fight with more strikes thrown from GSP b/c Shield's striking is worst than Koscheck's.

Shield's only chance is to somehow get GSP down and tap him (way easier said than down).


Machida on the other-hand does not look as invincible as GSP lately. Randy needs to get close and press Machida up against the fence like he did to Vera. But Machida is better than Vera so I am pretty sure he'll tag Randy some moment throughout the fight when he's closing the distance and get a TKO.
Shields is the master of getting taken down but winding up on top, or getting his opponents back during a scramble.

I can't remember the last time I saw someone on GSPs back, but this is how I see a possible upset: GSP is controlling things on the feet, but feels the need to press the action, shoots a single leg and leaves his neck open for the guillotine and it either ends there or Shields takes his back during a scramble for a RNC - wouldn't bet on it but crazier things have happened.
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post #39 of 42 (permalink) Old 04-30-2011, 07:13 PM
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I see Randy being the more reasonable choice. He has a very good chance at getting Machida down and imposing his will.
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post #40 of 42 (permalink) Old 04-30-2011, 07:19 PM
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I would say Jake Shields only because the dude is the legit #2 WW in the world right now. Machida is the legit #2-3 LHW in the world right now. Randy is probably #8-12.

So, to me, that says Shields has the better shot.

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