I've been saying this for a while now and I'm glad Dana agrees ... money totally changed Machida.
I could literally see the stars in his eyes when the cameras started flashing on him with the UFC gold, and the blonde bimbos lined up next to him for pictures in the clubs. At that moment he looked like Lyoto the star more than Lyoto the fighter.
I think Machida's father hinted at something similar too when he said he thought Lyoto should retire now. I suspect he saw the fame going to Lyoto's head as well.
I agree with Dana that this doesn't look like the same guy at all that won the belt. Usually I hate the "it all depends on which so-and-so shows up tonight" kinda crap excuses, but this really is a different fighter IMO. Mentally much weaker.
Which is why I give Randy a good chance of winning this ... except recent interviews indicate Randy is just as mentally weak nowadays and in retirement mode.
So my prediction is basically a boring ass fight between two off-prime play-it-safers (the Randy from the Vera fight vs the Machida from the last 2 fights), with the win going to the slightly less weak fighter.
Hopefully a GSP-shields war will save the night.