Pretty much agree with everything except I feel Machida has a very good chance. He's unorthodox, is solid in the clinch, and is difficult to take down. Here's the order of bouts we will see.
4.) Maybe Shogun x 2
5.) JDS moves down to LHW if he fails in the championship bid. *Why not. He's not a big HW to begin with.*
If all else fails, Anderson "The Spider" Silva will come in and take care of the job. Fawk if this ever happens. That means Anderson Silva would have already beaten GSP and probably has an almost unbeatable MW defense record providing he defends against Okami, etc.
That would be sick.
Machida has the movement to avoid punches, but he's never really faced an elite wrestler. His problems are compounded by the fact that he doesn't have the one punch power to stop jones on his way in. Jones is so big he will do anything to get a hold of Machida and once he closes the gap it's over.
But I never thought of JDS, that would be one hell of a fight.