Bringin' it back: TraMaI's UFC 131 Breakdown and Picks!! - Page 2 - MMA Forum - UFC Forums - UFC Results - MMA Videos
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post #11 of 54 (permalink) Old 06-10-2011, 02:44 AM
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As far as the Carwin/JDS thing goes... How did he show he was human against Roy? By failing to KO him? That dude has a chin that's quite possibly better than Mark Hunt's was. I do not understand how he can take as much punishment as he does in all honesty. Your other points are valid though, but you also have to remember that Carwin has yet to face a striker anywhere NEAR the level JDS is on as well. As far as Junior stuffing him, I'm not sure it will happen either, Carwin is a big dude with a powerful shot, but he's also sluggish on his feet and I expect JDS to be constantly active from the bottom if he ends up there. But yeah, your point is entirely valid, that fight is one fight I'm very uneasy about calling a definitive winner, it could really go either way.
JDS had a decent reach advantage on Nelson. He could use his mobility and angles to keep Roy off him and maintain a distance where he could hit Roy but Roys arms wouldnt be long enough to hit him.

Carwin is the opposite. He has reach on JDS. JDS will need to come forward to get inside Carwins range. JDS may not have the distance he enjoyed against smaller fighters like Roy that he can utilize to make himself look pretty. JDS needing to get inside sets him up nicely for a shot even if Carwin enjoys plodding moreso than exploding forwards.

Carwin also seems to have excellent accuracy and timing with his punches even if his mobility has never really been displayed I think Carwin can move much faster when he needs to.

Thats how I see it, anyway. We'll see!!
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post #12 of 54 (permalink) Old 06-10-2011, 05:40 AM
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Pretty good breakdowns.

1. the Florian vs Nunes fight will depend A LOT on how the wieght cut affects Florian. I thinke he is the better, all-around fighter, but if he doesn't have the energy/cardio/strength to put i all together, Nunes could dominate en-route to a UD

2. Carwin coming in at 250 lbs is a big "?". I believe he lost that weight in order to focus on his cardio, but strength was one of his biggest advantages going in a fight.
Also: Gonzaga tagged him pretty badly in their fight, knocking him down.
JDS is 10x the striker Gonzaga is. SO, i think he will go one step further

3. Maia vs Munoz is up in the air. The big X-factor for me is, where Munoz wants the fight to take place.
He definitely has the wrestling skills to take Maia down, but i don't think he wants to do so, unless he hurts Maia standing and follows up on the ground for a finish.

4. Hermann vs Einemo. What can you say about a guy who's fightin for the first time in 5 years?!?!?!
Yes...he's training at Golden Glory, but training =/= fighting and Hermann has pretty heavy hands. Einemo doesn't want this fight on the feet.
Should be a quick fight.

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post #13 of 54 (permalink) Old 06-10-2011, 06:53 AM
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People seem to forget that Maia threw best wrestler in the division(arguably in MMA) over his head while jumping into a triangle. I think Maia will get him down and finish it, Munoz is slightly overrated imo. I think Florians experience with bigger and better fighters will be too much for Nunes, winning against MTB and Assuncao by split decsion is nothing compare to Florins DOMINANT wins of likes of Gomi and Guida.

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post #14 of 54 (permalink) Old 06-10-2011, 01:49 PM Thread Starter
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JDS had a decent reach advantage on Nelson. He could use his mobility and angles to keep Roy off him and maintain a distance where he could hit Roy but Roys arms wouldnt be long enough to hit him.

Carwin is the opposite. He has reach on JDS. JDS will need to come forward to get inside Carwins range. JDS may not have the distance he enjoyed against smaller fighters like Roy that he can utilize to make himself look pretty. JDS needing to get inside sets him up nicely for a shot even if Carwin enjoys plodding moreso than exploding forwards.

Carwin also seems to have excellent accuracy and timing with his punches even if his mobility has never really been displayed I think Carwin can move much faster when he needs to.

Thats how I see it, anyway. We'll see!!
I think the big difference maker there isn't the reach IMO. Look at how the two fared against their common opponent in Gonzaga. Carwin was almost KO'd by Gonzaga (a man with less reach than Junior) while JDS just tooled him all over the place. Carwin tends to eat a lot of punches so he can get in and chuck bombs, which JDS won't let him do. JDS will use his footwork, move around Carwin instead of standing right in front of him and punching like Gonzaga, and tag him on counter shots like he's done to all of his opponents. JDS does NOT get hit very much because of his head movement and footwork.

Also, the reach advantage you're talking about is only 1 1/2 inch. Remember, they measure knuckle to knuckle so Carwin's true reach advantage is only half of the difference between the two. Add to that that the reach advantage he DOES have is all coming from his shoulder width, not his arms, and it's a far less pronounced advantage. Carwin will have to stand perfectly perpendicular to JDS to have that reach advantage, meaning he'll really only get it on his jab. Carwin's KO power comes from his right hand, not his left. I also don't think he has the striking technique to really utilize such a small reach advantage to begin with. Factor all of that in and that reach advantage becomes basically nil.

If this fight stays standing, JDS wins handily outside of getting clipped by a big power shot from Carwin which could very, very well happen. There's no way he'll get out struck by Carwin.

Now, if this fight goes to the ground then that's a wholely different story and the fight becomes much more competitive. We've only heard of how good JDS is off his back, we haven't yet seen it. We have seen, however, Carwin's takedown power and it's going to be very hard for Junior to stop it. That's what this fight comes down to IMO. Can Junior maneuver his way around Carwin and keep from getting taken down? If so can he have an effective offense while doing so? If he stuffs Carwin can he get out fast enough to avoid those huge bombs Carwin throws inside? Those are the three keys to this fight. I believe JDS can avoid him long enough for Carwin to make a mistake so JDS can put him out with something or at least rock him and get him to gas himself.

Either way, I still put this fight in my mind at like 60/40 JDS.
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post #15 of 54 (permalink) Old 06-10-2011, 01:56 PM
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Good breakdown. Tough event to do picks for i reckon. Cerrone has been damn impressive but by the sounds of Rocha any time the fight hits the floor he'll be dangerous.

Maia gets the sub imo. Munoz was completely out classed in the grappling by Okami, and Maia only needs to get the better of the grappling once to put himself in the position to sub Munoz.

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post #16 of 54 (permalink) Old 06-10-2011, 02:01 PM
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Nice. I have all the same picks, including JDS over Carwin, but I'll be rooting for Shane for the victory.
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post #17 of 54 (permalink) Old 06-10-2011, 02:08 PM
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agree on every pick, nice breakdown, except i think carwin and JDS will end in the 1st...i cant see it going past the 1st with 2 huge guys packing so much heat

also Hermann vs Einemo im really on the fence since i dont know much about either guy also, except that olav is a bjj wizard and is training his striking a lot, still tough fight to pick...if i had to lay my money down i would go with hermann too, but only because im banking on ring rust

Last edited by ACTAFOOL; 06-10-2011 at 02:10 PM.
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post #18 of 54 (permalink) Old 06-10-2011, 02:13 PM Thread Starter
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agree on every pick, nice breakdown, except i think carwin and JDS will end in the 1st...i cant see it going past the 1st with 2 huge guys packing so much heat

also Hermann vs Einemo im really on the fence since i dont know much about either guy also, except that olav is a bjj wizard and is training his striking a lot, still tough fight to pick...if i had to lay my money down i would go with hermann too, but only because im banking on ring rust
The only reason I'd pick it to end later is that they both KNOW the other has crazy power. This will lead to a longer feeling out process, niether pulling the trigger because they're waiting to counter and both men generally being conservative. This fight will end in the first or second REAL exchange these two have, I totally agree with this, I just think it will take them quite a while to get there.
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post #19 of 54 (permalink) Old 06-10-2011, 02:15 PM
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I agree with everything except the Einemo pick. When you spend years training in golden glory you're bound to pick up some things.

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post #20 of 54 (permalink) Old 06-10-2011, 02:29 PM
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The only reason I'd pick it to end later is that they both KNOW the other has crazy power. This will lead to a longer feeling out process, niether pulling the trigger because they're waiting to counter and both men generally being conservative. This fight will end in the first or second REAL exchange these two have, I totally agree with this, I just think it will take them quite a while to get there.
hmmm makes sense, this has happened many times, though im also banking on the assumption that carwin will be scared to go into later rounds, so he wont want to risk his cardio and will go balls out like he usually does
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