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Old 06-10-2011, 02:35 PM   #21 (permalink)
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I agree with everything except the Einemo pick. When you spend years training in golden glory you're bound to pick up some things.
Totally and I think Einemo will be the more TECHNICAL striker, I just think he lacks power, which Herman seems to have in droves.

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hmmm makes sense, this has happened many times, though im also banking on the assumption that carwin will be scared to go into later rounds, so he wont want to risk his cardio and will go balls out like he usually does
That's a good point. It depends on how confident he is in his training. If he's confident, since that' ALL he's been training, I assume he is, I think it'll go later. There's a good chance though that the Brock fight will have a big effect on that though. Good point, man.
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Old 06-10-2011, 03:30 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Pretty much totally agree except forthe outcome of Maia/Munoz.

I think Maia stand up is just good enough to survive the exchanges and get Munoz to the ground. Where the JJ Wizard will finish.

Other than that I totally agree. Just wish I knew more about Einemo... So I can't really make any predictions against Herman.
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Old 06-10-2011, 09:34 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Pretty much totally agree except forthe outcome of Maia/Munoz.

I think Maia stand up is just good enough to survive the exchanges and get Munoz to the ground. Where the JJ Wizard will finish.

Other than that I totally agree. Just wish I knew more about Einemo... So I can't really make any predictions against Herman.
I honestly hope you're right lol. Huge Demian fan and a huge fan of BJJ in general... and I hate pure wrestling... so yeah every fiber of me hopes Demian wins this fight... just don't know if it will happen!
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Old 06-10-2011, 09:57 PM   #24 (permalink)
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Pretty good breakdowns.

1. the Florian vs Nunes fight will depend A LOT on how the wieght cut affects Florian. I thinke he is the better, all-around fighter, but if he doesn't have the energy/cardio/strength to put i all together, Nunes could dominate en-route to a UD
I think this fight depends more on Florian's mental state & confidence more than anything else. Kenny has all the skills to take him out, but he's also being known to choke in important fights and fight way below his skill level. If he comes in to throw down and finish then he should win without too much trouble, but if he chokes again it's going to be a long night for him.
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Old 06-10-2011, 11:46 PM   #25 (permalink)
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I honestly think Carwin could land that one knockout punch to JDS. JDS could start off good than get caught by that punch. Kinda like the Gonzaga - Carwin fight.
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Old 06-11-2011, 02:21 AM   #26 (permalink)
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I think the big difference maker there isn't the reach IMO. Look at how the two fared against their common opponent in Gonzaga. Carwin was almost KO'd by Gonzaga (a man with less reach than Junior) while JDS just tooled him all over the place. Carwin tends to eat a lot of punches so he can get in and chuck bombs, which JDS won't let him do. JDS will use his footwork, move around Carwin instead of standing right in front of him and punching like Gonzaga, and tag him on counter shots like he's done to all of his opponents. JDS does NOT get hit very much because of his head movement and footwork.

Also, the reach advantage you're talking about is only 1 1/2 inch. Remember, they measure knuckle to knuckle so Carwin's true reach advantage is only half of the difference between the two. Add to that that the reach advantage he DOES have is all coming from his shoulder width, not his arms, and it's a far less pronounced advantage. Carwin will have to stand perfectly perpendicular to JDS to have that reach advantage, meaning he'll really only get it on his jab. Carwin's KO power comes from his right hand, not his left. I also don't think he has the striking technique to really utilize such a small reach advantage to begin with. Factor all of that in and that reach advantage becomes basically nil.

If this fight stays standing, JDS wins handily outside of getting clipped by a big power shot from Carwin which could very, very well happen. There's no way he'll get out struck by Carwin.

Now, if this fight goes to the ground then that's a wholely different story and the fight becomes much more competitive. We've only heard of how good JDS is off his back, we haven't yet seen it. We have seen, however, Carwin's takedown power and it's going to be very hard for Junior to stop it. That's what this fight comes down to IMO. Can Junior maneuver his way around Carwin and keep from getting taken down? If so can he have an effective offense while doing so? If he stuffs Carwin can he get out fast enough to avoid those huge bombs Carwin throws inside? Those are the three keys to this fight. I believe JDS can avoid him long enough for Carwin to make a mistake so JDS can put him out with something or at least rock him and get him to gas himself.

Either way, I still put this fight in my mind at like 60/40 JDS.

Carwins constantly improving(everyone is). You can see he changed his approach massively between the Gonzaga and Frank Mir fights. In the Gonzaga fight he stood right in front of Gonzaga and tried to slug fest his way to victory.

Realizing he could be hurt by a good puncher, Carwin resorted to a gameplan in his next fight. He stood on the outside against Mir(showing decent mobility), waited for Mir to come forwards, then shot in pressing Mir against the cage where it would be safer to finish him off.

A surprisingly mobile Carwin who uses gameplans(the second Mir comes forwards and commits to something, Carwin shoots and pushes Mir into the cage):



JDS has good mobility, having a reach advantage adds to that. The thing with mobility & footwork is this is the heavyweight division. Its not lightweight where someone like Frankie Edgar can constantly use their mobility to fustrate and out-maneuver people. Fighters are bigger and heavier & they're taller and have longer reach. Its not really economical for a heavyweight to fight like say how Frankie Edgar does. JDS isn't likely to zip around with enough speed and technical proficiency to keep Carwin off him. As long as JDS is in a position to land a punch on Carwin, Carwin having a reach advantage will more or less guarantee Carwin can do the same.

JDS has been hit before by Cro Cop, etc. He can be hit.

Carwin throws nice uppercuts with his left hand too, if I remember right. Most of Carwins KO's happened years ago, I'm sure hes developed and added more tools to his arsenal.

Another thing likely to limit JDS' offense is Carwins wrestling. One reason Pettis couldnt unleash his striking had to do with him being wary about Guida taking him down. JDS could face the same problem. He'll either have to respect the wrestling of Carwin and be more tentative then were used to seeing him, or he may wind up on his back.

I think Carwin will try for a gameplan possibly similar to the one he used against Mir. JDS will have to come forwards at some point and Carwin will shoot on him and try to push him up against the cage, then either try for a takedown or use dirty boxing.

The scenario where Carwin and JDS stay in the center of the octagon and commit to a slugfest where JDS outmaneuvers and out-strikes Carwin isn't likely to develop, I'm thinking.
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Old 06-11-2011, 06:54 AM   #27 (permalink)
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You have some really good points and I'm in no way saying you're wrong, I'm just saying what I think will happen. Loving this conversation so far as well, this is what I was hoping to get out of starting this thread!

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Carwins constantly improving(everyone is). You can see he changed his approach massively between the Gonzaga and Frank Mir fights. In the Gonzaga fight he stood right in front of Gonzaga and tried to slug fest his way to victory.
Totally agree. That being said, Carwin is still (likely, as we haven't seen him for like a year) miles behind JDS from a striking stand point. We're talking about a man with low level striking and huge power trying to close the gap with someone who, IMO, is a K-1 level striker.

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Realizing he could be hurt by a good puncher, Carwin resorted to a gameplan in his next fight. He stood on the outside against Mir(showing decent mobility), waited for Mir to come forwards, then shot in pressing Mir against the cage where it would be safer to finish him off.

A surprisingly mobile Carwin who uses gameplans(the second Mir comes forwards and commits to something, Carwin shoots and pushes Mir into the cage):
He impletmented a fantastic game plan against Mir. That fight actually went almost to a T the way I called it Same thing with the Brock fight. Thing is that Carwin has used that gameplan before (get close, birty box until his face falls off). It's a good plan, but we've seen it before. If there's one thing JDS will be looking to counter as a whole, it will be that plan.

Secondly, Mir has many, many weaknesses that JDS does not.

A) His striking, while improving, is no where NEAR as good as Junior's.

B) He's easily one of the slowest heavy weights in the division, foot work and otherwise.

c) Mir's striking is extremely predictable after the first few exchanges. He tends to throw a lot of the same combo (See the Nogueria fight where he throws the same combo about 2000 times)

D) Mir's wrestling and TDD is severely lacking. As a BJJ ace, it always has been. He's comfortable off his back so he hasn't learned to stuff a shot the right way proficiently. JDS' wrestling remains to be seen, but he does circle well off the cage and he does defend takedowns well, at least better than Mir.

Trying to do the same thing to JDS as he did with Mir won't happen the same way from what I've seen in the two fighters. That's not to say it won't happen entirely, but it's going to be much harder for Carwin to do that to JDS than it was with Mir.

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JDS has good mobility, having a reach advantage adds to that. The thing with mobility & footwork is this is the heavyweight division. Its not lightweight where someone like Frankie Edgar can constantly use their mobility to fustrate and out-maneuver people. Fighters are bigger and heavier & they're taller and have longer reach. Its not really economical for a heavyweight to fight like say how Frankie Edgar does. JDS isn't likely to zip around with enough speed and technical proficiency to keep Carwin off him. As long as JDS is in a position to land a punch on Carwin, Carwin having a reach advantage will more or less guarantee Carwin can do the same.
THere's a key to this. Naturally big men like JDS (who isn't overweight and seems to fit his frame very well) are generally not as encumbered by this. JDS still moves quickly in later rounds, or at least far more so than most other heavy weights. Cain is the same way. Carwin has a lot of unnecessary muscle on his body (from an anatomy stand point, not fighting) that will slow him down. Junior is far more lean and compact. I think Junior will slow down, but not until Carwin has essentially completely gassed himself. JDS will be faster than Carwin for this entire fight IMO.

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JDS has been hit before by Cro Cop, etc. He can be hit.
Despite his age, CroCop is still a very, very high level K-1 striker. Carwin is nowhere near him.

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Carwin throws nice uppercuts with his left hand too, if I remember right. Most of Carwins KO's happened years ago, I'm sure hes developed and added more tools to his arsenal.
IIRC he throws them more as a set up punch. Not that it's a bad thing, I just don't think he'll be turning JDS' lights out with it. Carwin's bread and butter will remain that right straight. Junior has many more knock out punches in his arsenal IMO. Still,, a straight right is about the best KO punch you can ask for lol.

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Another thing likely to limit JDS' offense is Carwins wrestling. One reason Pettis couldnt unleash his striking had to do with him being wary about Guida taking him down. JDS could face the same problem. He'll either have to respect the wrestling of Carwin and be more tentative then were used to seeing him, or he may wind up on his back.
The thing about that is that when you fight a wrestler, striking doesn't go out the window, kicking does. I don't expect JDS to throw a lot of kicks and knees for fear of being taken down, but I expect him to still be able to commit to his punches. That being said, I still think JDS is going to go into this looking to counter punch regardless, mroe for fear of getting into a slug fest with Carwin than for fear of his wrestling.

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I think Carwin will try for a gameplan possibly similar to the one he used against Mir. JDS will have to come forwards at some point and Carwin will shoot on him and try to push him up against the cage, then either try for a takedown or use dirty boxing.
As I said, I do as well. It's his bread and butter plan. I do not, however, think it will work with Juniors speed and mobility. Mir is a wholely different fighter than Junior is.

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The scenario where Carwin and JDS stay in the center of the octagon and commit to a slugfest where JDS outmaneuvers and out-strikes Carwin isn't likely to develop, I'm thinking.
I agree, I don't think either man is willing to trade blows with the other. It's going to come down to who can maneuver around the other better and who can cancel out who's gameplan. I just think JDS has a better shot at doing that.
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Old 06-11-2011, 03:30 PM   #28 (permalink)
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Like I said about the Herman/Einemo fights: I've never really seen either one fight. I watched a couple of both of their fights on YouTube, but that's it. Honesly, the main reason I'm rooting for Herman is because he's from Fort Wayne, IN... My hometown. It's also where Fitch is from :P

As far as the Carwin/JDS thing goes... How did he show he was human against Roy? By failing to KO him? That dude has a chin that's quite possibly better than Mark Hunt's was. I do not understand how he can take as much punishment as he does in all honesty. Your other points are valid though, but you also have to remember that Carwin has yet to face a striker anywhere NEAR the level JDS is on as well. As far as Junior stuffing him, I'm not sure it will happen either, Carwin is a big dude with a powerful shot, but he's also sluggish on his feet and I expect JDS to be constantly active from the bottom if he ends up there. But yeah, your point is entirely valid, that fight is one fight I'm very uneasy about calling a definitive winner, it could really go either way.
With only 1 win by submission, I don't see JDS as a threat to submit Carwin off his back, which is where he will wind up if they go to the ground. I'm surprised to see JDS as a favorite here, and think Carwin will smash him up against the fence, take him down, and put on a GNP clinic for the win.
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Old 06-11-2011, 03:34 PM   #29 (permalink)
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Old 06-11-2011, 03:38 PM   #30 (permalink)
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