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Old 06-09-2011, 08:10 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Bringin' it back: TraMaI's UFC 131 Breakdown and Picks!!

Holy crap it's been forever since I've done this!!! But alas, I've been thinking over the past few days about this and I really would like to start doing this again. I enjoy it and I enjoy all of your input on my picks and breakdowns.

Without further ado, let's get it started.

I'll be breaking down the main card:


Donald Cerrone vs Vagner Rocha

Starting out the main card is Donald Cerrone and Vagner Rocha. Now, I am a huge Cerrone fan, but I'll try and keep my bias aside from the sake of having a good breakdown. I'll start by saying that Vagner is legit on the floor. He doesn't just have the credentials (Popovitch BB, multiple BJJ tourney wins) he has the skills while fighting MMA as well. That being said, I haven't seen anything from his wrestling that makes me think he'll be able to take Cerrone down easily, if at all. His fight with Soares was basically Soares stuffing his shot for an entire round, gassing himself, stuffing him more in the second and finally getting taken down when he had no gas left at all to defend on the ground, giving Rocha a TKO. I think Cerrone has far too good of cardio for that. He's also very long, has very, very good stand up and I think he could hold his own enough on the ground to not get submitted if it ever goes there. Provided Cerrone doesn't try to take Rocha down (he's very tricky off his back as well), he should take this by out pointing him on the feet.

Cerrone via UD

Demian Maia vs Mark Munoz
Oh my, I do not want to break this fight down. Silva did an excellent job of setting this one up as this is a very, very tough fight for both men. Munoz has very, very heavy hands and a very good wrestling base. Maia, of course, is a master jiu-jitsu practitioner and has actually improved his boxing quite a lot. I don't think either man has faced an opponent with the respective skill sets of each other to date, which makes this incredibly interesting. The big question here is CAN Maia take Munoz down? According to UFC.com Munoz has a 55% TDD rate, which is rather low until you look at some of the wrestlers he's fought like Aaron Simpson, Yushin Okami, and Mike Pierce. I don't think Demian has the takedown power of any of those men, but then again he has a different takedown style than all of them as he uses trips more than a traditional single/double leg. The other question is can Demian weather the storm standing with his current stand up skill? I say, defensively, yes. But with that, he's going to have very little offense going on and I don't see him KO'ing Munoz any time in the near future.

Hoping I'm wrong as a huge fan of Maia, but calling this one Munoz by TKO, rd 2.

Jon Olav Einemo vs Dave Herman

Let me start this off by saying I have honestly never seen either of these men fight haha. After watching a few of their fights on the youtube I believe Einemo has the better stand up technically, but he lacks power. Einemo is also a very, VERY good grappler. He's the only man to defeat Roger Gracie at ADCC and he won his weight division (88-98kg) in 2003. That being said, from what I've seen, Herman has STUPID good TDD. His fight with Rinaldi was basically Rindali trying to take him down for 3 rounds while Herman jumped around and hit him while staying standing. He's also very slick off his back. I don't see him subbing Einemo from there, but he could pull out a surprise. His stand up is good and very, very powerful. He has a tendency to throw a bit wild at times, but who can argue with 14 TKOs in 22 bouts?

Calling this one for both Fight of the Night and Herman by KO, Rd 2! (WAR FORT WAYNE!)

Kenny Florian vs. Diego Nunes

Oh man I might have to take back what I said about Herman/Einemo being FotN... This fight is really, really interesting. Diego is an extremely technical Muay Thai striker. Florian is also one of the better strikers of the lower weight divisions. Both of them have excellent BJJ as well. I think Diego is the more technical out of the two though by a decent margin but Kenny may have a bit more power, coming from LW. This one is honestly tough to call for me. I think Nunes is faster and more technical standing, versatile enough on the ground to hold his own and not get subbed. I don't think Kenny has the wrestling to take him down at all either... That being said, Kenny does find a lot of wins. Only 1 of his fights has been a decision win. Past fights have shown though that the key way to beating Kenny is dragging the fight out. He has 3 decision losses to his 1 win. Nunes last 5 wins are decisions.

I'm going with the law of averages here and calling it Diego Nunes via UD 29-28

Main Event: Shane Carwin vs Junior Dos Santos

Whooo buddy! This bout has fireworks written all over it from all angles. Carwin gets the wrestling and power advantages, Junior gets speed, technicality and grappling. That being said, both men have the power to put each other's lights out at any given moment. It think Shane's plan for this bout will probably be his plan for most fights. Press them up against the cage and dirty box until he's asleep. It's a plann that's worked very, very well until this point. It damn near won him the belt. That being said, it's not going to work on Junior. Junior has far better footwork than any fighter Shane has fought so far. I think Shane will be too slow to keep up with Junior standing up and he may try to take him down later in the round. The outcome of this fight lies there in my opinion. Carwin possesses Ground and Pound power that we haven't seen since the likes of Gary Goodridge. The dude is an absolute monster when he's on top of someone. If he takes JDS down, there's a good chance it's curtains when he gets his base under him. I'm not 100% confident of this, but I think JDS has the TDD to stuff Carwin long enough to win this fight standing.

Junior Dos Santos via TKO, late round 2!


Tell me what you think guys!
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Old 06-09-2011, 09:10 PM   #2 (permalink)
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I agree with everything expect I think Cerrone will finish the fight. I don't know how but he is a monster. He will finish it because he is a better fighter, and his BJJ is improving a lot.

Good picks buddy, I also don't know about the Maia fight but that can go any way so I won't even predict that one.
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Old 06-09-2011, 09:23 PM   #3 (permalink)
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I agree with everything expect I think Cerrone will finish the fight. I don't know how but he is a monster. He will finish it because he is a better fighter, and his BJJ is improving a lot.

Good picks buddy, I also don't know about the Maia fight but that can go any way so I won't even predict that one.
Yeah I was debating Cerrone finishing that fight, but watching Rocha's fights, he has one hell of a chin and I don't see Cerrone subbing a fantastic BJJ BB like him. He's good on the ground, yeah, but he's not good enough to sub someone at that high of a level.

It's definitely not out of the question for him to finish Rocha though, Cowboy has some serious knees.
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Old 06-09-2011, 09:41 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Cerrone was getting beaten up on the feet in his last fight against a pretty average kickboxer, so I don't think he's going to be that big a force on the feet
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Old 06-09-2011, 09:42 PM   #5 (permalink)
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agree with every pick you made but i think JDS extinguishes carwin early round 1
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Old 06-09-2011, 09:45 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Cerrone was getting beaten up on the feet in his last fight against a pretty average kickboxer, so I don't think he's going to be that big a force on the feet
Donald is a notoriously slow starter. He beat the snot out of a much better kick boxer in Chris Horodecki as well. Also, he finished both of them.
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Old 06-09-2011, 11:16 PM   #7 (permalink)
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I think Einemo and Carwin win their fights.

Seeing how much the game has evolved over the years and the people Einemo trains with, I'm expecting him to come back with more than he had in his last fight years and years ago. Dave Herman looked good in Japan and fighting under other promotions. But, most who look good outside the UFC fail to do well in the UFC. The step up in competition has a tendency of making fighters who looked like gods look average at best. Statistics are against Herman, I think Einemo takes it. Although, being 35 it is possible Einemos best fighting days are behind him.

JDS showed he was human against Roy Nelson. Carwin has wrestling. I think Carwin won't flail and make the type of mistakes that allow excellent strikers to defeat excellent wrestlers. Is Carwin the first wrestler JDS will face? Yes. Even JDS isn't 100% sure if he can stop a takedown from a good wrestler. If Carwin gets stuffed it'll probably mean clinching and grappling and both fighters being unable to punch with full power once they're arm weary. Carwins only real weaknesses are his cardio and lack of technical striking. I think Carwin has the advantage with his wrestling and KO power and JDS being uncertain about where he stands against wrestlers.
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Old 06-10-2011, 12:53 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Like I said about the Herman/Einemo fights: I've never really seen either one fight. I watched a couple of both of their fights on YouTube, but that's it. Honesly, the main reason I'm rooting for Herman is because he's from Fort Wayne, IN... My hometown. It's also where Fitch is from :P

As far as the Carwin/JDS thing goes... How did he show he was human against Roy? By failing to KO him? That dude has a chin that's quite possibly better than Mark Hunt's was. I do not understand how he can take as much punishment as he does in all honesty. Your other points are valid though, but you also have to remember that Carwin has yet to face a striker anywhere NEAR the level JDS is on as well. As far as Junior stuffing him, I'm not sure it will happen either, Carwin is a big dude with a powerful shot, but he's also sluggish on his feet and I expect JDS to be constantly active from the bottom if he ends up there. But yeah, your point is entirely valid, that fight is one fight I'm very uneasy about calling a definitive winner, it could really go either way.
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Old 06-10-2011, 12:57 AM   #9 (permalink)
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I don't know how that Jon Olav Einemo fight is on the main card. It honestly is probably the UFC being nice since they pulled Carwin from the fight.
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Old 06-10-2011, 01:47 AM   #10 (permalink)
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I don't know how that Jon Olav Einemo fight is on the main card. It honestly is probably the UFC being nice since they pulled Carwin from the fight.
I was thinking the same thing honestly but hey, any time I can get a home town native on a PPV main card I'll take it!
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