I voted for:
Elliot - Bader has impressed me, but I think Marshall might have the edge standing and has a good chance of pulling off a submission even though Bader will control where the fight goes.
Kryzstof - His experience and versatile skillset give him a good shot. I voted before I saw the clip of Vinny pulling guard - but even though Vinny's far superior on the ground, I think it's quite possible that Kryzstof gets back to his feet. The show has presented them both as kinda dicks, but Kryzstof's Canadian so I'll give him the nod (blurring the line between intelligent pick and fanboy cheering, I guess).
Efrain - He's skilled, composed, and focuses on training and fighting. Junie's antics and lack of concentration hurt him last fight. It looks like he's cracking under pressure.
Nover - I was really impressed with his last fight. He's got fast hands and he's smooth on the ground.