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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Sicne BJ is getting his rematch (which I have mixed feelings about - but mostly positive) it's pretty safe to assume that Gray Maynard will fight Kenny Florian for number one contenderhsip; how will it play out?

On the feet (strikes): If Maynard chooses to stand with Florian, I see Florian landing more kicks (probably 3 to 1) but with the hands, I see power shots being equal and I'm leaning toward Kenny landing more jabs. Kenny will utilize swift movement and Gray will likely stalk and look to land the one-two and maybe even body-head combinations. I see Kenny landing more all-purpose strikes, Maynard probably landing the hardest shots. Overall, I give the standing advantage to Kenny, but it's pretty close.

On the feet (grappling): Barring a flash knockdown, I have no reason to believe Kenny will be able take Maynard to the ground; especially with a single or a double while Gray still has gas in the tank. If anything, a throw from the clinch (not exactly Kenny's fortay) or a lucky head-and-arm. I do realise that Kenny's wrestling has come a long way since Sherk but with Gray being the best wrestler at 155 lbs right now (in MMA in my opinion [at 155]) I see Gray getting at least two out of three takedowns with 50% being worst case scenario (especially in the early rounds) - if Gray chooses to take the fight to the ground. Overall, the grappling advantage (standing) goes to Gray by a somewhat dramatic margin.

On the Ground: Kenny's top game would be a night mare for Gray - if Kenny can get Gray on his back and hold him there in the first place. If Gray winds up on top of Kenny, I don't necessarily see Kenny pulling off any dramatic sweeps or anything nor do I see an armbar, but a triangle isn't impossible if Gray is tired and Kenny can control his posture. With Gray on top, I don't see him transistioning to the mount or any completely dominant postions; maybe side control/half guard he can do a bit of damage from there but he won't finish the fight in these positions. If Kenny can get on top of Gray (lol) he is very much a threat with his transitions, elbows and subs - and if Gray's tired he could very well finish the fight from here. Overall, I give the ground advantage to Kenny.

The real question is, what is Gray Maynard going to try to do. If he comes in looking to bang (for the whole fight) he wins 35-40% of the time against Kenny. If both fighters come in with equal cardio and Gray strikes for half of each around and looks for takedowns the other half, I see him winning at least 75% of the time.

Basically, despite Kenny having a slight advantage on the feet and on the ground, I see cardio, and the gap in wrestling as being the biggest factors in this particular bout.

I'll go even as far as to say the only way Kenny wins this fight (barring some astronomical fluke), is if he comes in better shape than Gray and either subs him via rear naked choke (which only happens if Gray gasses out and Kenny somehow winds up on top of him and eventually makes his way to his back) or if Gray comes in to strike for two rounds - and even then it's not a guarantee that Kenny will always win the exchanges though do I concede the odds on the feet are in his favour.

I pick Gray UD assuming Gray fights the smart fight - I mean, If he wasn't so worried about making a point (or the sub) he really could have dominated Diaz like Kurt Pellegrino did except not gas in the second.
 
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